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The 2014 Victorian State Election

Introduction

Victoria is earning a reputation for producing surprising election results. According to political commentators and the opinion polls, the 1999 election was expected to return the Coalition Government and the 2010 election was expected to return the Labor Government, yet neither did.

Even though the polls had long placed Labor ahead of the Coalition, the party's election to office at the 2014 election was still regarded as a significant outcome.

This was because of the removal of the Coalition Government after only one term in power, when history has shown us that governments in Victoria are often likely to consolidate their position at their first return to the ballot box. It had been more than half a century since Victoria experienced a single term government, in 1952-55, and it was a casualty of the split of the Australian Labor Party.

It should be noted however, that the close numbers in the Legislative Assembly in the last Parliament — 44 Coalition, 43 Labor and one Independent, and the redistribution of the state's electoral boundaries, meant that Labor required a notional uniform swing of only around 1 per cent to gain government.

The election result was that Labor secured government by obtaining a total of 47 seats in the 88 seat Parliament with a swing of 3.6 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

This election is also historic for the election of two representatives of the Greens Party into the Legislative Assembly: the first time the party has won seats in the Lower House in Victoria. Also, notable, was the election of an Independent in what had been a very safe National Party seat (Shepparton).

The make-up of the Legislative Council after the election was also significantly changed. Neither of the major parties won a majority in the Upper House, and the Greens and four other minor parties won ten seats between them.

As stated earlier, this paper provides a description and analysis of the results the 2014 Victorian state election, set out in three main sections.

Part A of the paper provides some context to the outcome of the election by examining the redistribution of Victoria's state electoral boundaries, and key issues during the life of the 57th Parliament.

Part B of the paper provides an overview of the election campaign, the leaders' debate, preference deals, social media, key policies, and polls data in the lead up to, and during the campaign. This section also includes a brief overview of the minor parties.

Part C of the paper examines the outcomes of the election in both houses and how the parties fared. It also contains a short section on women MPs, new and departing MPs, voter turnout, and the number of candidates contesting the election. Part C also provides statistical tables for each district and region and additional tables and information on relevant voter statistics.

 

PART A: THE CONTEXT FOR THE 2014 ELECTION

1. The redistribution of electoral boundaries

In 2013, the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) conducted a redistribution of Victoria's state electorates. The application of the 2010 election results to the new boundaries indicated some notable consequences.

The ABC's election analyst, Antony Green's analysis of the results of the 2010 election based on the new boundaries, revealed some notable changes to the results.[footnote 1] The redistribution of electoral boundaries abolished two Coalition seats and created two notionally Labor-held seats. Major changes to other boundaries, however, converted several Labor seats into notionally-held Liberal ones.[footnote 2] According to Antony Green, Bellarine, Monbulk, Ripon, Wendouree and Yan Yean became notionally Liberal held seats on very small margins.

The VEC's analysis of the new seats, based on the 2010 election results, suggested different effects. According to the VEC, Wendouree and Yan Yean remained notionally Labor held seats, on the smallest of margins.[footnote 3]

Taking into account the VEC's analysis, the redistribution meant that Labor now had to win three seats rather than two, in order to win government. Paradoxically, the redistribution also made it easier for the Labor Party to win government by reducing the uniform swing it required to win, from 1.2 per cent to 0.8 per cent.[footnote 4]

Table 1a: Party composition of Legislative Assembly[footnote 5]

 

After 2010 election

After the resignation of the Member for Frankston from the Parliamentary Liberal Party and the redivision of electoral boundaries

Liberal

35

36

Nationals

10

9

Labor

43

42

Independent

-

1

Total

88

88

1.1 Old boundaries

§ Labor needed a uniform swing of 1.2 per cent to win two seats, and

§ there were 16 seats with a margin of 2.5 per cent or under — five Liberal, 11 Labor.

1.2 New boundaries

§ Labor needed a uniform swing of 0.8 per cent to win three seats, and

§ there were 16 seats with a margin of 2.5 per cent or under — seven Liberal (three with sitting Labor members), nine Labor.

2. The 57th Parliament

The last time a Victorian government was defeated after one term was in 1955 (John Cain Snr's 1952-55 administration) as a result of the Labor Party split. A look back at the 57th Parliament, however, goes some way to explain the election results of 2014.

The 2010 election left the Coalition with 45 seats in the Legislative Assembly and the Labor Party with 43 seats. The provision of a Speaker by the Coalition reduced the majority on the floor of the House of Government, to just one seat.

Such close numbers in the House demand reliable party discipline over the life of a Parliament to ensure the success of the Government's business program. This was not what transpired during the 57th Parliament.

Instead the business of the Legislative Assembly chamber was hampered by instability. While a detailed account of all that transpired is beyond the scope of this paper, some of the major events are outlined below.

2.1 Instability

Much of the instability in the Legislative Assembly during the 57th Parliament was related in some way to the actions of Geoff Shaw, the Member for Frankston. After the Herald Sun revealed to the Premier, Ted Baillieu, in May 2012 that they had allegations that Mr Shaw had allegedly misused his parliamentary entitlements, the Premier asked the Speaker, Ken Smith to conduct an investigation.[footnote 6] On 5June 2012 the Speaker informed the House that he had received a disclosure under the Whistleblowers Protection Act 2001 alleging improper conduct by the member for Frankston, which he then referred to the Ombudsman, as required under the Act.[footnote 7]

A recommendation of the Ombudsman's report tabled in Parliament on 11 October 2012 led to further investigations by the Legislative Assembly's Privileges Committee and Victoria Police (the latter at the request of Opposition Leader, Daniel Andrews).[footnote 8]

On 6 March 2013, Mr Shaw resigned from the Parliamentary Liberal Party to sit as an Independent on the crossbenches, thereby obtaining the balance of power in the Lower House. Releasing a brief statement to the media, he cited dissatisfaction with the Leadership of the Government as a reason for his resignation.[footnote 9] This contributed to Mr Baillieu resigning as Premier later the same day.[footnote 10]

Mr Shaw was also critical of Speaker Smith. He stated to the media that he did not have confidence in the Speaker to manage the security of the parliamentary precinct.[footnote 11] This related to an incident on the steps of Parliament House in which Mr Shaw was caught up in a scuffle with taxi licence owners demonstrating against the Government's changes to the taxi industry.[footnote 12]

Mr Shaw selectively voted with the Opposition to leverage his ability to influence the Government and to bring about the removal of Speaker Smith.[footnote 13]

The effects in the Legislative Assembly included:

§ the resignation of the former Premier, Baillieu on 6 March 2013 and his replacement by Denis Napthine

§ the resignation of the former Minister for Gaming Regulation and Minister responsible for Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (IBAC), Andrew McIntosh on 16 April 2013 (who said he was the member of the Privileges Committee who had 'leaked' information about Mr Shaw to a newspaper)[footnote 14]

§ the Member for Frankston voting with the Opposition to defeat the Government's Business Program for the sitting week beginning 12 November 2013

§ the suspension of Opposition members for six sitting days on 26 November 2013

§ the resignation of former Speaker Smith, on 4 February 2014

§ the suspension of the Member for Frankston for 11 sitting days on 11 June 2014.

Premier Baillieu and the Coalition were polling poorly in early 2013. According to political commentators, this was partly due to perceptions that it was under-performing; because of the Herald Sun police tapes scandal;[footnote 15] and because of ongoing disputes with teachers, nurses and paramedics.[footnote 16] It was reported in the media that Baillieu had lost the confidence of a section of the parliamentary Liberal Party and was forced to resign.[footnote 17]

The polls improved initially after Denis Napthine became Premier in February 2013 and resolved the teachers pay dispute in April.[footnote 18] According to Newspoll, opinion poll results for the Coalition rose in Mar/April 2013 and May/Jun 2013, but by September/October of 2013 they had shifted back in favour of the Labor Party and stayed there until the election.[footnote 19] (A more in-depth polling discussion is provided later in this publication).

Other issues that attracted wide media attention during the 57th Parliament included:

§ demonstrations about cuts to TAFE funding[footnote 20]

§ protests about changes to taxi licences[footnote 21]

§ the teachers' salary dispute 'broken promise'[footnote 22]

§ protests and blockades by inner Melbourne residents against the East West Link[footnote 23]

§ the unresolved pay dispute with paramedics[footnote 24]

§ the health issues of residents in the region of the Hazelwood mine fire[footnote 25]

§ the threatened closure of SPC Ardmona in Shepparton[footnote 26]

§ the announced closures of local car manufacturing companies General Motors Holden, Ford and Toyota in 2017[footnote 27]

§ the loss of jobs at Alcoa's aluminium smelting plant at Point Henry and QANTAS maintenance at Avalon[footnote 28]

§ the unpopularity of some of the Federal Coalition government's 2014 budget measures[footnote 29], and

§ a rise in the state's unemployment level.[footnote 30]

 

PART B: THE CAMPAIGN

3. The campaign

Political commentators tended to describe the election campaign as 'lacklustre' and 'uninspiring'.[footnote 31] Even so, much of the news media declared that Daniel Andrews had been the better campaigner, and that his wife proved to be a campaign asset.[footnote 32]

Commentators discussed the transformation of Daniel Andrews in the media and the polls over the election campaign. Labor's advertising campaign presented him as a positive and engaging family man.[footnote 33] Over this period his ratings as 'preferred Premier' in the polls climbed several percentage points. While he started significantly behind Denis Napthine as 'preferred Premier' in the polls at the beginning of the campaign, by election day he was only four percentage points behind in the Newspoll.[footnote 34]

Dr Napthine was personally well regarded, and campaigned with his son Tom and wife, Peggy, often alongside in support. The body of political commentators felt, however, that the Coalition was beaten by Labor's 'youthful' campaign.[footnote 35]

3.1 Coalition three-cornered contests

There were tensions between the Coalition partners about the running of three-cornered contests. In 2008 National Party leader Peter Ryan and then Leader of the Opposition, Ted Baillieu, reached a ten-year agreement that the Coalition partners would not stand against each other in seats held by either of the parties in the Lower House.[footnote 36] Six years later, however, in February 2014, Liberal members were said to be unhappy that they were unable to field candidates in seats to be vacated by the retirement of Nationals MPs, Bill Sykes, Jeanette Powell and Hugh Delahunty.[footnote 37]

By June 2014, the Liberal Party stated that it was intending to field a candidate in the new seat of Euroa, even though the seat was notionally held by the Nationals. Mr Ryan was reported to have asked them not to stand a candidate.[footnote 38]

The parties disagreed about who should rightfully claim Euroa following the redrawing of its electoral boundaries.[footnote 39] The Nationals then fielded a candidate in the new seat of Eildon, which was largely made up of the former seat of Seymour, held by Liberal MP, Cindy McLeish.[footnote 40]

Both parties also fielded candidates in the newly created seats of Buninyong and Ripon. Buninyong was notionally Labor and Ripon notionally Liberal.

The results of the three-cornered contests were: the Nationals retained Euroa, the Liberal Party retained Eildon, Buninyong was retained by Labor and Ripon was won by the Liberal Party.

3.2 Grassroots campaigning

Following the election, commentary suggested that one of the elements of Labor's victory had been its successful grassroots campaign of phone calls and door knocking in marginal seats by teams of volunteers and unions. This strategy was based on a model adopted by the US Democratic Party to support President Obama's campaign.[footnote 41] According to several articles, the field campaign was initially launched in 25 marginal seats but narrowed its focus to just six key seats in the last weeks of the campaign (Bentleigh, Carrum, Mordialloc, Frankston, Bellarine and Monbulk).[footnote 42]

Labor's advertising and direct mail campaigns which had featured heavily in previous election campaigns were restricted and targeted. Direct mail, for example, was tailored to the particular issues identified by undecided voters during the field program.[footnote 43]

Some unions in dispute with the Government also campaigned against it at various venues. The paramedics union undertook grassroots activities in the field such as handing out leaflets, holding up banners and speaking directly to members of the public.[footnote 44]

The Victorian Greens were also noted for mounting a strong grassroots campaign based on the successful one run by the federal Member, Adam Bandt for the House of Representatives.[footnote 45] In the seat of Prahran, for example, 20,000 homes were doorknocked.[footnote 46]

3.4 Preference deals

Following the precedent set by the then Opposition Leader Baillieu in 2010, Premier Napthine announced to the media that the Liberal Party would preference the Greens last in all Lower House seats. For the group tickets in the Upper House, he stated that the Greens would be put last in most cases, but that he would consider putting them above candidates that he regarded as too extreme.[footnote 47]

Opposition leader, Daniel Andrews rejected the Greens offer of a formal preference deal, but said that they could swap preferences on a seat-by-seat basis. It was also reported that Labor would not make a preference deal with the Rise Up Australia Party.[footnote 48]

According to The Australian newspaper, the Greens and the Palmer United Party (PUP) struck a preference deal. The article stated that PUP agreed to give its preferences to the Greens above the Labor Party in all eight Upper House regions and above the Liberal Party in four of the seats. In turn, it was said that the Greens would place PUP above Labor in four regions and above the Liberals in seven.[footnote 49]

There was also speculation in the media that the minor parties were doing preference deals with each other to leverage their chances of winning an Upper House seat. Glenn Druery, the so-called 'preference whisperer' who helped Ricky Muir of the Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party win a seat in the Senate in Victoria at the 2013 federal election, stated on the ABC's 7.30 that he was working with the smaller parties.[footnote 50] Elsewhere in the media it was reported that he advised the Shooters and Fishers Party.[footnote 51]

The Sex Party was reported to have exchanged preferences with the Basics Rock 'N' Roll Party, the Voluntary Euthanasia Party, the Animal Justice Party and the Australian Cyclists Party.[footnote 52]

3.3 The Leaders' debate

There was some discussion in the media about the fact that there was only one debate by the party leaders and that it was not televised on free-to-air television.[footnote 53] Instead, the debate between the leaders was a 'people's forum' in front of 100 undecided voters selected by Galaxy Research, in the marginal seat of Frankston. It was televised by Sky News and the questions were unscripted and asked from the floor. The debate was described as 'fiery' in some news reports, as questions on medical marijuana, the Melbourne airport rail link and the East West Link, were tackled by the leaders. Both leaders ruled out increases to taxes and charges.[footnote 54]

In his final submission to the audience, Dr Napthine focussed on the issue of trust: asking who do you trust to manage the economy, maintain Victoria's AAA credit status, and to deliver budget surpluses that fund hospitals and schools, and 200,000 new jobs, 60,000 apprenticeships and 850,000 training places. He compared the previous Labor government's track record of the desalination plant, the north-south pipeline and myki compared to the current Coalition government's AAA credit rating, budget surpluses and record investment to build a better Victoria.[footnote 55]

Mr Andrews' final submission focussed on Labor's plans for removing 50 dangerous level crossings, repairing the TAFE system, ending the war on paramedics, finding hospital beds for a better health system, giving every child a better chance to improve the education system and getting Victoria back to work.[footnote 56]

A poll of the audience members after the debate gave Mr Andrews a narrow victory. Thirty-nine audience members said that they would vote for Mr Andrews, 38 said they would vote for Dr Napthine and 23 remained undecided.[footnote 57]

3.5 The East West Link project

The election was widely described by the media and politicians as a referendum on the East West Link project. It was a clear point of difference in the policies of the major parties.[footnote 58]

In May 2013, the Coalition Government announced that it would fund the eastern part of the East West Link (EWL) as the first stage of the proposed 18-kilometre toll road that would run from the western suburbs of Melbourne to the Eastern Freeway in Clifton Hill.[footnote 59]

The Coalition Government estimated that the eastern-section of the EWL would cost $6-8 billion. It stated that the project would be built via a public private partnership (PPP) arrangement, with financing sourced from the State Government, the Commonwealth Government and the private sector. The Federal Coalition pledged $1.5 billion for the building of stage one of the EWL (and a further $1.5 billion for the future building of stage two).[footnote 60]

In June 2013, the Coalition Government released the executive summary or 'short form business case' for the project and submitted it to Infrastructure Australia.[footnote 61]

Some groups – such as the Greens, local governments in the project area, transport academics and community organisations – called for the full business case for the project to be released for public scrutiny. Concerns also centred on the acquisition of residential properties, and the impact on Royal Park and Melbourne Zoo.[footnote 62]

Leader of the Opposition, Daniel Andrews stated in the media in August 2013 that he did not support the EWL project and that it should be put to the people at the election. He further stated that the contracts for the EWL should not be signed eight weeks before the election, but said if the contracts were signed prior to the election he would not seek to cancel them because of sovereign risk.[footnote 63]

On 19 November 2013, Labor announced its alternative infrastructure project to the EWL. Labor's Project 10,000 which was to be funded by the sale of the Port of Melbourne, would remove 50 of the most dangerous level crossings, build Melbourne Metro Rail, remove 5,000 trucks daily from the Westgate Bridge, invest $2 billion on roads and create 10,000 construction jobs.[footnote 64]

In June 2014, the Coalition Planning Minister approved the building of the eastern section of the EWL. In July 2014, Moreland and Yarra Councils began legal proceedings opposing the decision on the basis that the planning process had been flawed.[footnote 65] A number of protest groups had also been demonstrating against the project.[footnote 66]

An Age/Neilson poll of 1000 voters in mid-2014 reported that 45 per cent favoured the removal of 50 level crossings as the most important infrastructure project, 30 per cent favoured the building of the Melbourne Metro Tunnel, ahead of the 20 per cent who were in favour of the building of the EWL.[footnote 67]

On 11 September 2014, Daniel Andrews announced in an interview on morning radio that Labor would not honour the EWL contract because he did not accept that it would be legally binding. Rather, he would proceed with Labor's own transport plan for improvements in public transport and local roads.[footnote 68]

It was also speculated in the media that this policy by Labor was meant to appeal to potential Greens voters in the inner Melbourne seats of Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote.[footnote 69]

On 29 September, the Coalition Government signed a contract with the East West Connect consortium to build stage one of the EWL. The Government stated that if the contracts were not honoured after a change of government, Commonwealth grants for the project would have to be repaid, in addition to contract termination costs.[footnote 70]

Three weeks before election day, Prime Minister Tony Abbott stated that the election was a referendum on the EWL.[footnote 71]

Further polling on the subject of the EWL showed increasing support for the project. A Herald Sun/Seven News survey or more than 2,500 Victorians found 45 per cent now favoured the EWL ahead of 23 per cent who favoured the removal of 50 level crossings.[footnote 72] The ABC's Vote Compass online poll of its 30,000 participants, found that 46 per cent disagreed with the cancelling of the EWL, 35 per cent supported the cancelling of the project and 20 per cent were neutral or unsure.[footnote 73]

On 20 November 2014, Moonee Valley Council lodged a separate legal action against the project.[footnote 74]

There was considerable media discussion questioning the Government's decision to sign a contract so close to an election as well as critical reporting of the Opposition for declaring that it would not honour the contract if elected to office.[footnote 75]

3.6 Parties and personalities

The 2014 election set a new record for the number of parties fielding candidates. A total of 21 parties fielded candidates, compared to 10 at the previous Victorian election in 2010.

The parties which fielded candidates for the first time in the 2014 election were: Animal Justice Party, Australian Christians, Australian Cyclists Party, Liberal Democratic Party, Palmer United Party, People Power Victoria – No Smart Meters, Rise Up Australia Party, Shooters and Fishers Party of Victoria, The Basics Rock'N'Roll Party, Voice for the West, Voluntary Euthanasia Party (Victoria) and Vote 1 Local Jobs.

Musician Tex Perkins attracted media attention when he announced that he would stand as a candidate for the marginal seat of Albert Park on the single issue of saving the Palais Theatre. The Labor Party subsequently pledged up to $13.4 million to work with the Port Phillip Council and the theatre's operators to restore the theatre in the event that it gained government. In response, Perkins made a statement rarely heard from political candidates, 'You don't have to vote for me'.[footnote 76]

Tex Perkins was not the only musician standing at the election. Band members of The Basics formed the Basics Rock'n'Roll Party to lobby for music, education and Indigenous issues.[footnote 77]

Coburg football identity and the former federal Independent member for Wills, Phil Cleary, known for his anti-violence activism, stood for Voice for the West on a ticket of addressing family violence, renewable energy and public transport.[footnote 78]

3.7 Social media

The uptake and integration of social media grew significantly between the 2010 and 2014 election campaigns, to the point that it was a central feature of candidates' campaigns, electoral education, and news reporting during the 2014 election.[footnote 79]

For example, the VEC actively engaged social media to promote the election. Its 'Driving Votes' roadshow toured historically under-represented districts to encourage young people to register to vote, and ran an online competition to post photos from the roadshow on the VEC website.[footnote 80] A new smartphone app, 'Vote Victoria', was developed to remind people to vote, provide information on candidates and voting centres, and monitor the vote count after the polls closed.[footnote 81] Further, the VEC live-tweeted results as they were declared during the weeks after the election.[footnote 82]

Twitter was widely used throughout the campaign to report from the hustings. The hashtag #SpringSt and #vicpol continued to be used throughout the campaign for posts on Victorian politics, but the hashtag #vicvotes became popular for campaign related material. Tweets reached their peak on election day, with #vicvotes used more than 23,000 times by 5.30pm.[footnote 83] While most candidates engaged through online profiles, there were also many anonymous and fake accounts used to attack party policies.[footnote 84]

Social media was also employed by candidates to target particular demographics. For example, in what was reported as an Australian first, the Greens appealed to the gay male population in Prahran by placing advertisements on the mobile phone dating application 'Grindr'.[footnote 85]

Given this engagement with social media, candidates' online presence was highly scrutinised. Two candidates resigned from standing in the election as a result of comments they made on social media.[footnote 86] Campaign volunteers were also reprimanded for offensive posts.[footnote 87]

4. Key policies of the parties

A comprehensive catalogue of the Coalition, Labor and Greens policy platforms for the 2014 state election is beyond the scope of this paper. However, a selection of key policies put forward by the Coalition, Labor and the Greens are summarised below. The policies of the minor parties who were elected and the successful independent candidate Suzanna Sheed are also provided.

4.1 The Liberal Nationals Coalition


Source: Photo: A. Wylie (2014) The Age[footnote 88]

The Coalition's main policies included: major transport projects; a $100 million infrastructure fund for regional cities; education initiatives; and incentives to employ long-term unemployed young people.[footnote 89] The key message of the Coalition's election campaign was that only the Coalition could be trusted to manage the economy and deliver surpluses to invest in infrastructure and services.[footnote 90] The Coalition's campaign slogans included 'Building a Better Victoria' and 'Strong Economy, Helping Families, Creating Jobs'.[footnote 91]

The Coalition officially launched its campaign on 9 November 2014 in Ballarat. The regional city takes in the three marginal electorates of Buninyong, Wendouree and Ripon. Prime Minister Tony Abbot did not attend the launch but former premiers Jeff Kennett and Ted Baillieu and federal senators, including Mitch Fifield and Scott Ryan, attended.[footnote 92]

Investment in transport infrastructure was a main plank of the Coalition policy platform. In addition to the building of the East West Link, the Coalition planned to widen the CityLink and Tullamarine Freeway at a cost of $1.1 billion.[footnote 93] The Coalition also pledged to build the 'Melbourne Rail Link' which it said would comprise of 'a new underground rail link from Southern Cross to South Yarra via Fishermans Bend' and a rail link to Melbourne Airport.[footnote 94] It also promised to upgrade the Cranbourne-Pakenham rail corridor to allow 'a 30 per cent boost in capacity' on those lines.[footnote 95]

The Coalition announced at the campaign launch that it would invest $3.9 billion in 170 new trains and trams, which would see a new train delivered 'every month for the next decade', and create 3,500 jobs in the rail manufacture, supply and construction industries.[footnote 96]

The campaign launch also emphasised rural and regional initiatives. The Coalition announced a new $100 million 'Regional Cities Infrastructure Fund' for Victoria's ten largest regional cities. It was explained that the Regional Cities Infrastructure Fund would come from the $1 billion Regional Growth Fund to finance projects that would enable regional cities to keep up with population growth.[footnote 97] The Coalition also pledged to invest $178.1 million to provide an extra 79 V/Line train trips per week on eight country rail lines and to duplicate part of the Traralgon line,[footnote 98] and to upgrade and standardise the rail link to Mildura.[footnote 99]

In regard to education, the Coalition pledged to reduce cost of living expenses for families through a $100 rebate for each child attending kindergarten.[footnote 100] They also announced that they would increase the number of 'primary welfare officers to cover all state schools'.[footnote 101] Coalition policy also included the investment of $1.2 billion in new schools and school upgrades over four years, with additional funding of $4.2 billion for education to be delivered over the next term through the Better Schools Agreement with the Commonwealth Government.[footnote 102]

Coalition policy also encompassed the $75 million 'Youth Employment Strategy'. The strategy would support young people aged 15 to 24, who had been unemployed for more than six months and were not enrolled in full-time study or training, to assist them obtain the skills and experience needed to gain employment.[footnote 103]

In the area of health, Coalition policies included $15 billion for hospitals and health services, a new hospital in Bendigo, major upgrades at Ballarat and Geelong, building the new Box Hill Hospital, the new Victorian Comprehensive Cancer Centre and Monash Children's Hospital, and building Australia's first dedicated Cardiac Hospital – Monash Heart – at the Monash Medical Centre.[footnote 104]

4.2 The Labor Party

During the 2014 election campaign, Victorian Labor launched its policies through Daniel Andrews' Leader of the Opposition website. The Labor campaign ran on six main themes: 'skills and knowledge', 'jobs and growth', 'health and wellbeing', 'world class transport', 'a safe and just society', 'sustainable and liveable communities', and 'backing rural and regional Victoria'.[footnote 105]

The official Labor campaign was launched on 26 October 2014 in Geelong.[footnote 106] Former premiers John Cain Jr, Joan Kirner, Steve Bracks and John Brumby were in attendance, with Federal Leader of the Opposition Bill Shorten delivering the opening speech.[footnote 107] Labor's campaign slogan was 'Victorian Labor Putting People First'.[footnote 108]

The policy focus of the campaign launch was education, with Mr Andrews' speech marking the launch of the 'Education State' platform. Mr Andrews announced a number of education initiatives, including reinvigorating technical schools and the TAFE system, which were linked to a broader jobs and skills platform throughout the campaign.[footnote 109] In addition, Labor pledged to help create 100,000 full-time jobs through its 'Back to Work' plan, including 10,000 construction jobs as part of its 'Project 10,000' transport plan.[footnote 110]

The 'Back to Work' plan also included the introduction of the Back to Work Act, which would create a $100 million fund to give payroll tax concessions to companies that hire unemployed youth, the long-term unemployed and re-trenched workers. The 'Back to work' plan additionally included the creation of a Jobs and Investment Panel to advise the Premier on employment expenditure, a Future Industries Fund, and a Regional Jobs Fund.[footnote 111]

'Project 10,000' was the Labor alternative to building East West Link and it detailed initiatives such as: removing 50 level crossings across the metropolitan rail network; building Melbourne Metro Rail; building the West Gate Distributor to remove trucks from the West Gate Bridge; $2 billion in funding for suburban and regional roads; and upgrading strategic roads such as the Tullamarine Freeway and Hoddle Street.[footnote 112] A number of public transport initiatives were announced including: $100 million to improve bus services in growth areas;[footnote 113] implementing an extra 22 train services between Geelong and Melbourne per day;[footnote 114] extending the South Morang line to Mernda;[footnote 115] opening Flagstaff station on the weekends;[footnote 116] building the Huntingdale bus interchange at the Monash University Clayton campus;[footnote 117] and 24-hour public transport on Fridays and Saturdays through the Homesafe program.[footnote 118]

In regard to health, Labor's primary policy was to address the paramedics pay dispute and improve ambulance services. It pledged to remove the board of Ambulance Victoria, fund new ambulance infrastructure, and reduce ambulance response times.[footnote 119] Hospital investments were also announced including: an expansion of Casey Hospital;[footnote 120] investment in medical technology through the Aikenhead Centre for Medical Discovery at St Vincent's Hospital;[footnote 121] and building the Western Women's and Children's Hospital in Sunshine.[footnote 122]

Labor's platform also encompassed rural and regional policy initiatives, in particular, 'Back on Track' plans were announced for Geelong, Bendigo, Ballarat, the Latrobe Valley, and Regional Victoria, as well as the establishment of a $500 million Regional Jobs and Investment Fund.[footnote 123]

As part of its 'Our Environment, Our Futureplan', Labor said it would support wind farms through a New Energy Jobs Fund,[footnote 124] undertake a State of the Bay report ever five years, introduce a Yarra River Protection Act, and reintroduce the ban on cattle grazing in the Alpine and River Red Gum National Parks.[footnote 125] Labor prepared its election commitments financial statement independently of Treasury, and released it on 28 November 2014.[footnote 126]

4.3 The Greens

The Greens presented a comprehensive policy platform that addressed health, justice, the economy, education, the environment and other major areas of state governance.[footnote 127] Key election campaign policies included: the rejection of the East West Link in favour of easing congestion through improved public transport; action on climate change through increasing the use of renewable energies; health and education initiatives; and measures to increase political integrity.

The Greens launched their official election campaign on 15 November 2014 in Melbourne's Flinders Lane. The Greens election campaign slogan was 'For a plan you can trust'.[footnote 128] At the campaign launch, the then National leader of the Greens, Christine Milne, said the party was focussed on re-engaging voters through a door knocking campaign, which would work 'door by door, meeting by meeting, person by person, conversation by conversation'. She emphasised that having Greens in Parliament helped to hold governments to account and aid transparency.[footnote 129] The Greens contrasted their campaign message that 'You can trust us to tackle the big issues in smart, sustainable ways', with a perceived lack of action by the major parties on issues such as public transport, renewable energy and the environment.[footnote 130]

A key plank of the Greens policy platform was that the $18 billion projected to be spent on (both sections of) the East West Link, would be better invested in improving the public transport system.[footnote 131] Victorian Greens leader Greg Barber stated that building more roads has been shown not to cure traffic congestion, whereas public transport helps to take people off the road and enhance the liveability of the city.[footnote 132] Specific public transport policies included initiatives to:

§ increase investment in Melbourne's train network immediately and run more trains at busy times[footnote 133]

§ fast-track investment in new signalling to increase capacity and efficiency of the train system, by investing $300-$400 million in the next four years[footnote 134]

§ purchase 50 additional E-class trams (which would further secure 500 Dandenong manufacturing jobs) at an estimated cost of $350 million[footnote 135]

§ extend existing tram routes to areas that do not have connected public transport, by investing up to $840 million in 17 low-cost tram extensions[footnote 136]

§ improve V/Line bus services by increasing the operational budget of V/Line buses by 50 per cent at an estimated cost of $16 million a year[footnote 137]

§ re-open the Geelong to Bendigo train service via Ballarat and Maryborough[footnote 138]

§ remove trucks carrying Port of Melbourne freight from residential streets by building West Gate truck bypass ramps, extending truck curfew times, and increasing investment in freight rail infrastructure[footnote 139]

§ provide $50 million per annum in capital grants to develop regional bike riding and walking infrastructure for tourists[footnote 140]

§ install secure bicycle parking at 40 train stations across Melbourne.[footnote 141]

Another key plank of the Greens policy platform was their support of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power. The Greens stated that the Coalition government had 'blocked' the renewable energy industry in Victoria, which had cost jobs and pushed investment in renewables to other states.[footnote 142] Greens policy included the reinstatement of the Victorian renewable energy target, and a transition away from coal-fired power stations.[footnote 143] They stated that 'Clean energy is not a threat but an employment opportunity for places like Anglesea and the LaTrobe Valley'.[footnote 144] The Greens also announced that they supported a permanent ban on new coal mining, onshore gas drilling and fracking, in order to protect agricultural land and water supplies from contamination.[footnote 145]

In regard to health, some key Greens policies encompassed the construction of a new Women's and Children's centre at Sunshine Hospital; increasing funding to mental health community support services; and increasing funding for preventative health measures with a view to lessening the economic burden on the Victorian health system.[footnote 146] The Greens also pledged their support for public education and restoration of funding to the Victorian TAFE system.[footnote 147]

The Greens election policies also included initiatives to support Victorian political integrity, such as: extending freedom of information laws; increasing the powers of the Independent Broad-based Anti-Corruption Commission; and providing the Victorian Auditor-General with the power to access and scrutinise taxpayer-funded project records.[footnote 148]

4.4 Shooters and Fishers Party

The Shooters and Fishers Party of Victoria slogan for the state election was 'Protect your freedoms & the future of outdoor sports'.[footnote 149] The party's policy platform centred on improving 'access to all public lands and waters in Victoria to enable all citizens to pursue and enjoy their cultural, outdoor, sporting and recreational interests'.[footnote 150] It emphasised the importance of activities such as hunting, fishing, four-wheel driving, horse riding and fossicking, to regional economies.[footnote 151]

Specific policies put forward by the Shooters and Fishers Party in regard to firearms included: the abolition of the Victorian long-arm (a category of firearm) registry; the removal of the 1996 uniform National Firearms Agreement (created following the Port Arthur massacre); and opposition to federal firearm laws in general.[footnote 152] They also stated their commitment to protecting deer, duck and quail hunting in legislation.[footnote 153] In regard to recreational fishing, the party stated its commitment to keeping waterways open for fishing and upgrading facilities for recreational fishers.[footnote 154]

The Shooters and Fishers Party also pledged its support for 'truth in sentencing and mandatory minimum sentencing subject to adequate parole rules and policing', and non-negotiable additional sentences for indictable offences involving a firearm. They also stated that 'for custodial sentences there should be no concurrent sentencing options available'.[footnote 155]

The Shooters and Fishers Party policies also included supporting Local Government and the constitutional recognition of Local Government. The party stated that local councils are large employers in regional communities and 'play a vital role in delivering a broad range of services'. They stated that they opposed forced amalgamations of councils and the outsourcing of services.[footnote 156] The party also stated its support for: trade unions and collective bargaining; an increase in apprenticeships and traineeships; the continuation of forestry; and its opposition to the misuse of 457 visas.[footnote 157]

4.5 Australian Sex Party

The Australian Sex Party launched its Victorian election campaign at the Melbourne city bar 'Madame Brussels' on 12 November 2014.[footnote 158] The Sex Party policy platform centred on civil liberties. Party slogans included 'Your Life, Your Choice! Protecting the civil liberties of all Victorians' and 'Take a new position'. The party described itself as 'a libertarian, political response to the needs of Australians in the 21st century'.[footnote 159]

It was reported that Sex Party leader Fiona Patten, said that social media has made it much easier for small parties to broadcast their message, and that the party 'ran an intense campaign on social media, taking in Facebook, YouTube and Twitter', which acknowledged that 'their potential supporters were not watching free-to-air television'.[footnote 160]

Key policies put forward by the Sex Party during the election campaign included support for 'voluntary assisted dying', which it defined as 'the process whereby an individual chooses to engage the assistance of an appropriately qualified person to end their life'.[footnote 161] The policy document stated that: 'The Australian Sex Party believes in the rights of individuals being able to make informed decisions about the way they die and support an individual's right to a dignified death'.[footnote 162] Ms Patten was reported as saying that 'the first thing she wants to do if elected is call for the Victorian Law Reform Commission to investigate voluntary assisted dying laws'.[footnote 163]

The Sex Party also campaigned on 'equality and reproductive rights'.[footnote 164] The party pledged support for: same-sex marriage; abortion to remain legal in Victoria; the introduction of 100 metre buffer zones around fertility clinics for protesters; and 'equality in adoption rights, surrogacy and access to IVF services, regardless of gender identity or relationship status'.[footnote 165]

The Sex Party policies in regard to sex work, included: the full decriminalisation of sex work; the amendment of the Charter of Human Rights and Responsibilities Act 2006 to protect sex workers from discrimination; reform of regulations pertaining to sex work; and the establishment of an advocacy organisation to protect the rights and interests of sex workers.[footnote 166]

Drug law reform was another major policy concern of the Sex Party. Proposed reforms included: the removal of all criminal and civil sanctions for the use or cultivation of cannabis for people over 18; the regulation and taxation of the supply of cannabis in Victoria; support for the use of medicinal cannabis; and the decriminalisation of all drugs for personal use accompanied by the implementation of appropriate harm reduction mechanisms (such as clean needles for injecting drug users and support for health and community workers).[footnote 167]

4.6 Democratic Labour Party

The DLP launched their Victorian election campaign on 18 October 2014 in the inner-northern Melbourne suburb of Brunswick East.[footnote 168] DLP campaign slogans included: 'Giving a voice to all Victorians'; 'Be heard, make a difference'; and 'Putting You back into Labour'.[footnote 169]

The main policies put forward by the DLP included opposing abortion and euthanasia. DLP campaign documents emphasised the party's opposition to abortion and their policy to introduce a private member's bill to repeal section 8 of Victoria's Abortion Law Reform Act 2008 (which provides that if a woman requests a registered health practitioner to advise on or perform an abortion, and that practitioner has a conscientious objection to abortion, then they must refer the woman to another practitioner who does not have a conscientious objection).[footnote 170]

The DLP also pledged to expand palliative care services. The party emphasised their opposition to the enactment of euthanasia legislation and stated that it is 'completely unnecessary in light of advances within medicine and alternative medicine for effective pain relief, and the development of modern methods of palliative care'.[footnote 171]

Reform of poker machine laws was put forward as a key DLP policy. The policy stated that tens of millions of dollars are lost by Victorians each year through gambling and it disproportionately affects people who are financially vulnerable.[footnote 172] The DLP said that 'limiting the maximum bet on poker machines to $1 (down from $5 at present), and limiting losses to a maximum of $120 per hour, will reduce problem gambling. This solution targets problem gamblers only, and would have little to no impact on recreational gamblers.'[footnote 173]

The DLP election campaign also featured a policy to establish a state-owned bank called the 'State Development Bank' to help 'build a strong self-sustaining Victorian economy'. The policy document said that the State Development Bank would 'use its funds to finance public and private enterprises, mostly for infrastructure and long-term investment, but also for regional development and capital for small and medium enterprises.'[footnote 174]

4.7 Vote 1 Local Jobs

Vote 1 Local Jobs is a new political party with policies that centre on enhancing job security in regional Victoria, particularly in Western Victoria. The party was officially registered 'a few weeks before the November election'.[footnote 175] Its slogan was 'Working for Western Victoria'.[footnote 176]

The Vote 1 Local Jobs election platform included an 'eight-point jobs plan' with the aim of creating ongoing employment for residents of Western Victoria.[footnote 177] The plan proposed the removal of payroll tax obligations from country businesses to provide an incentive for businesses to be located outside of Melbourne. The party stated that this would be financed through a one per cent increase in metropolitan payroll tax.[footnote 178]

Vote 1 Local Jobs policies also included: ensuring the commitment of local and state governments to buying locally produced products; the relocation of a further five per cent of government departments to regional areas; and lowering the driving age to 17 for apprentices and workers during working hours.[footnote 179]

The party additionally proposed that regional education be improved by increasing funding to universities, TAFEs and technical colleges, and by establishing online training in small towns to overcome distances.[footnote 180] They also proposed 'overhauling the childcare system to support working parents' through the reduction of red tape to reduce the cost of childcare, training to encourage in-home childcare, and greater flexibility in childcare hours.[footnote 181]

In regard to transport, the party proposed 'investing the $50 million currently spent annually on the Grand Prix into Western Victoria roads and rail' to improve the transport infrastructure and encourage business activity in the region.[footnote 182]

Vote 1 Local Jobs also emphasised the protection of agricultural land as a key policy, and stated its opposition to coal seam gas development, free trade agreements and foreign ownership of farmland.[footnote 183]

4.8 Independent – Suzanna Sheed

Suzanna Sheed announced her candidacy as an Independent for the electoral district of Shepparton on 30 October 2014.[footnote 184] The Shepparton News reported that Ms Sheed 'wanted to address issues she believed had been overlooked in the electorate because of Shepparton being considered a safe seat'.[footnote 185] Her campaign slogan was 'Stand up Shepparton – It's our turn'.[footnote 186] It was also reported that Ms Sheed's campaign was based on 'having conversations about what we were trying to achieve'; making 'the best use of finite resources' through small gatherings with community leaders; and supporters using social media to 'spread the word'.[footnote 187]

Ms Sheed's policy platform for the election was based on advocacy for the Shepparton region. Her campaign focussed on the need to address disadvantage and the high level of youth unemployment in the region, which she stated was symptomatic of underinvestment in local services and infrastructure.[footnote 188]

Key policies included the establishment of a strategic and consultative review of Shepparton's current education model, with a view to improving education facilities and outcomes in the region.[footnote 189] Ms Sheed also pledged that she would campaign for increased funding for Shepparton's hospital, Goulburn Valley Health.[footnote 190]

In regard to transport, Ms Sheed's policies included seeking a full commitment from local, state and federal governments to the roll out of the Goulburn Valley Bypass project; and the upgrading of rail connections to Shepparton so that the network would be capable of running VLocity trains and 'providing connectivity to fast, reliable and frequent services through to Melbourne'.[footnote 191]

5. News coverage and the polls

5.1 Editorials

Newspaper editorials including those published in The Age, The Australian, the Australian Financial Review (AFR) and the Herald Sun almost uniformly supported the return of the Coalition government to power. The exception was a Sunday Age editorial the week before the election which gave qualified support to Labor. It stated, 'With little enthusiasm, and much reservation, the Sunday Age believes Labor is better able to lead Victoria'.[footnote 192] For more information on the newspaper editorials, see the Campaign Snapshot later in the paper.

5.2 Alternative news

New notable sources of commentary on the 2014 election included The Conversation and Unipollwatch. The Conversation was established in March 2011 to provide academic commentary on news items. This gave academics the ability to publish peer-reviewed news analysis on issues of relevance to the election during the campaign.[footnote 193] Further, Unipollwatch was established to co-ordinate reporting on the 2014 state election, with students from La Trobe, Melbourne, RMIT and Swinburne universities collaborating to report on local electorate issues, because 'State elections don't tend to get as much coverage as federal elections … yet, vitally important matters are determined by state governments'.[footnote 194] The Guardian Australia also gave considerable attention to the election through the commentary of Gay Alcorn.[footnote 195]

5.3 Opinion polls

Opinion polls conducted throughout 2014 indicated a likely Labor Party victory. The final polls of four of the five major polling groups closely mirrored the election result. These final polls were all conducted in the days leading up to the election, largely by telephone (landlines and mobiles), and each of these polls had a sample size over 1000.

Table 5.3a: Two-party preferred as predicted by major polling groups

Polling organisation

Labor

Liberal/Nationals Coalition

Newspoll, The Australian[footnote 196]

52

48

Fairfax Ipsos poll[footnote 197]

52

48

SMS Morgan Poll (Roy Morgan)[footnote 198]

50

50

Galaxy, Herald Sun[footnote 199]

52

48

Seven News/ReachTEL[footnote 200]

52

48

2014 Election Result

51.99

48.01

Graph 5.3a shows the trend in the two-party preferred vote in Newspoll from before the 2010 election through to the 2014 election. Unlike in 2010 when Newspoll showed Labor suffering a late swing immediately before the 2010 election, in 2014 Newspoll had Labor maintaining a strong position in two-party preferred terms throughout the election year.

Graph 5.3a: Two-party preferred vote, Newspoll 2010-2014

The following table, Table 5.3b, shows primary voting intentions as predicted by four polls taken in the final days before the election.

Table 5.3b: Primary voting intentions as predicted by major polling organisations

Polling organisation

Labor

Liberal/Nationals Coalition

Greens

Other

Newspoll/The Australian[footnote 201]

39

40

12

9

Fairfax Ipsos poll[footnote 202]

35

42

15

8

Roy Morgan SMS Poll[footnote 203]

36

44

13.5

6.5[footnote 204]

Galaxy, Herald Sun[footnote 205]

39

40 (34 LP + 6 Nat)

13

8

Seven News/ReachTEL[footnote 206]

38.3

39.7 (34.5 LP + 5.2 Nat)

13.5

8.5

2014 election result

38.10

41.99 (36.46 LP + 5.53 Nat)

11.48

8.42

Graph 5.3b, below, shows trends in primary voting intentions as predicted by Newspoll.

Graph 5.3b: Primary voting intentions, Newspoll

The following table, Table 5.3c, shows 'Preferred Premier' ratings as indicated by major polling groups, illustrating that in all the final polls, Dr Napthine remained in the lead.

Table 5.3c: Preferred Premier as indicated by major polling organisations

Polling organisation

Mr Napthine

Mr Andrews

Uncommitted

Newspoll, The Australian[footnote 207]

41

37

22

Fairfax Ipsos poll[footnote 208]

44

42

- *

SMS Roy Morgan Poll[footnote 209]

50.5

49.5

- *

Galaxy, Herald Sun[footnote 210]

41

38

21

Seven News/ReachTEL[footnote 211]

52

48

- *

* Roy Morgan and ReachTEL excluded 'uncommitted' responses from their poll. Fairfax Ipsos did not specifically mention the number of 'uncommitted'.

Table 5.3d show the trends in 'Preferred Premier' from Newspoll. While Dr Napthine's 'Preferred Premier' ratings remained relatively consistent throughout the election year, Mr Andrews 'Preferred Premier' rating improved as the rate of those who were uncommitted declined.

 

Table 5.3d: Newspoll results on 'Preferred Premier'[footnote 212]

Poll date

Mr Napthine

Mr Andrews

Uncommitted

Sept-Oct 2013

41

27

32

Jan-Feb 2014

39

28

33

May-Jun 2014

42

29

29

Jul-Aug 2014

41

31

28

27-30 Oct 2014

47

34

19

24-27 Nov 2014

41

37

22

Source: Newspoll (2014) Victorian Election Final Poll, 29 November, Newspoll website.

The following graph provides an illustrative version of the above data.

Graph 5.3c: Preferred Premier, Newspoll

In addition to Preferred Premier, Newspoll also asked questions to gauge the level of satisfaction and dissatisfaction with both the Premier and the Leader of the Opposition.[footnote 213] As the table below demonstrates, while the satisfaction rates for both leaders remained fairly stable, the dissatisfaction rate changed for each of the leaders by 9-12 per cent from the September-October 2013 poll to the 24-27 November 2014 poll.

Table 5.3e: Satisfaction and dissatisfaction with Premier/Leader of the Opposition (Newspoll)

Mr Napthine

 

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Uncommitted

Sep-Oct 2013

42

36

22

Jan-Feb 2014

43

35

22

May-Jun 2014

44

40

16

Jul-Aug 2014

40

43

17

27-30 Oct 2014

46

41

13

24-27 Nov 2014

41

45

14

Mr Andrews

 

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Uncommitted

Sep-Oct 2013

35

31

34

Jan-Feb 2014

32

33

35

May-Jun 2014

35

37

28

Jul-Aug 2014

32

41

27

27-30 Oct 2014

36

45

19

24-27 Nov 2014

38

43

19

Source: Newspoll (2014) Victorian Election Final Poll, 29 November, Newspoll website.

Overall, the main polling groups achieved a high level of accuracy with four of the five final two-party preferred polls closely reflecting the actual election result. For further information on public opinion polling in Victoria, including an examination of the methodologies used by the main polling groups and a guide to interpreting public opinion polling results, see the Parliamentary Library's 2011 research paper Public Opinion Polls.[footnote 214]

 

6. Campaign snapshot

 

Coalition

labor

greens

Launch: Location

Ballarat

Geelong

Melbourne CBD

Launch: Theme

Stronger economy
Helping families
Creating jobs

Victorian Labor Putting People First

The Greens
For a Plan You Can Trust

Leaders' Debate

38 votes for Napthine

39 votes for Andrews

N/A

Advertising Images

     

Some Key
Policies
[footnote 215]

East West Link Project

Melbourne Rail Link

200,000 jobs over 5 years in 'Jobs Plan'
'Supporting Families' package
Investing in 21st Century Hospitals and Schools
Maintaining the AAA Credit Rating

Scrap East West Link for Project 10,000 which removes 50 level crossings

Build Melbourne Metro Rail

100,00 jobs 'Back to Work' plan over two years
TAFE Rescue Fund
Back to School Plan
Establish a Royal Commission into Domestic Violence

Rejects East West Link for Transport and Freight policy which prioritises public transport funding above road funding.[footnote 216]

Climate Change Policy
Sustainable Agriculture Policy
Disability Policy
Land Use
Planning Policy

Biodiversity Policy

Promises $

$12.4 billion[footnote 217]

$10 billion

Not available as a total

Newspaper Editorials which Support:


Coalition has the best policies for the state (The Age)
Mediocre contest provides no imperative for change (The Australian)
Labor not fit for return in Victoria (AFR)
Dangerous time to change (Herald Sun)
It's a matter of trust (Herald Sun)

Change is needed after tawdry years (Sunday Age)

N/A

 

PART C: THE RESULTS

7. Outcome in the Legislative Assembly

7.1 Summary of the election result

The 2014 election saw a change of government after only four years of the Baillieu/Napthine Liberal Nationals Coalition Government. Mr Andrews became Victoria's 48th Premier as a result of Labor winning a total of 47 seats in the Legislative Assembly.

Ostensibly, since the 2010 election, Labor had a net gain of four extra seats in the Legislative Assembly: Bentleigh, Carrum, Frankston and Mordialloc. The Coalition lost seven seats, from a total of 45 seats in 2010, down to a total of 38 seats in 2014.[footnote 218]

The Greens had historic wins in the Legislative Assembly, winning two seats with 11.5 per cent of the state-wide primary vote. There was also a significant win by Independent Suzanna Sheed in the seat of Shepparton.

Table 7.1a: Overall Legislative Assembly result by party

Party

% share of first preference vote

Seats won

ALP

38.1

47

Liberal Party

36.5

30

The Nationals

5.5

8

Australian Greens

11.5

2

Others

8.4

1

Total

100

88

Source: State Election 2014 Results Overall Lower House results VEC website.

The Labor Party received 38.1 per cent of first preference votes, that is, 1,278,322 votes. The Coalition received 42.0 per cent of first preference votes, that is, a total combined 1,409,093 votes for the Liberal and National parties. The Greens received 11.5 per cent of first preference votes, that is, 385,190 votes.

Of the remainder, only the Australian Country Alliance (1.3 per cent) and Family First (1.1 per cent) received more than one per cent of first preference votes. But as more parties stand, the proportion of first preference votes received by the minor parties can be diluted among them. For example, when Family First stood for the first time in the 2006 Victorian election, it was up against eight other parties in the Lower House and won 4.3 per cent of the vote. In 2014 by comparison, there were 16 parties competing for seats in the Legislative Assembly.[footnote 219]

7.2 The Labor Party

Labor won back the four marginal 'sand-belt' seats that it had lost in 2010: Frankston, Carrum, Bentleigh and Mordialloc. However, it also won the seats of Monbulk and Bellarine which, along with Ripon, had become notional Coalition seats as a result of the redivision of electoral boundaries.

As explained earlier in the section of this paper on the redivision of electoral boundaries, Wendouree and Yan Yean were also widely understood to have become notionally Liberal held seats.[footnote 220] Analysis by the VEC however, has determined that they remained Labor held seats, on wafer-thin margins. They are therefore not being regarded here as Labor wins.

Table 7.2a: Seats gained by Labor at the 2014 election

District

2010 results Labor

Estimated 2010 results on new boundaries Labor

2014 results Labor

Swing* 2010-2014

New Labor majority

 

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

Bellarine#

51.4

48.1

54.8

6.7

4.8

Bentleigh

49.3

48.7

50.8

2.1

0.8

Carrum

48.0

49.8

50.7

0.9

0.7

Frankston

47.9

49.6

50.5

0.9

0.5

Monbulk#

51.9

49.0

55.0

6.0

5.0

Mordialloc

47.9

48.5

52.1

3.6

2.1

Source: Compiled from VEC data.

*Based on new boundaries. # Seats which had been deemed notionally Liberal held seats after the redivision of electoral boundaries

Labor's win depended upon it retaining all of its seats in the regional cities, as well as the growth corridor electorates, which it did.

An increasing challenge for Labor however, was the rise of the Greens in the inner metropolitan Melbourne seats of Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote.

Changing demographics in inner Melbourne has seen the gentrification of these electorates and an influx of young socially progressive voters. Associate Professor and political commentator Paul Strangio, writes that these 'post-materialist cosmopolitans' are attracted to the Greens idealism.[footnote 221]

Recent analysis of the NSW election results by The Australian newspaper, using census data compiled by the NSW Parliamentary Library, found that Greens-held electorates rated very highly among all of the electorates for those who professed no religion and households with an income of $3,000 a week or more.[footnote 222] Analysis of 2011 census data for Melbourne and Prahran indicated that both rated very highly for the following attributes: following no religion; being tertiary educated; and working as managers and professionals.[footnote 223]

This has been reflected in the election results over the last decade or so. With each election these electorates have increased their primary vote for the Greens at the expense of the Labor Party. For the first time in a Victorian election, Labor lost the seat of Melbourne to the Greens. It also came third, behind the Greens, in a three-way split in the seat of Prahran between the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens, with the preference flow from Labor ultimately propelling the Green's candidate over the line to win the seat from the Liberal Party.

Table 7.2b: Primary votes in the seat of Melbourne between Labor and the Greens

Melbourne Electoral District – Primary Vote

General Election

Labor (%)

Greens (%)

2014

29.27

41.44

2010

35.67

31.92

2006

44.56

27.41

Source: Victorian State Election Results, Victorian Parliamentary Library Intranet.

Of the seats that were won or retained by Labor, the largest swings since 2010 on a two-party preferred basis, based on the estimated results of the new boundaries, were recorded by Bendigo West (9.1 per cent), Broadmeadows (7.7 per cent), Bellarine (6.7 per cent), Thomastown (6.3 per cent), Monbulk (6.0 per cent) and Wendouree (5.9 per cent).

7.3 The Liberal Party

Among the seven seats lost by the Liberal Party since the 2010 election, were the four crucial sand-belt seats of Bentleigh, Carrum, Frankston[footnote 224] and Mordialloc, along the Frankston train-line corridor.

The Liberal Party received a stronger primary vote than Labor in the seats of Bentleigh and Mordialloc, and to a lesser extent, Carrum, as can be seen from Table 7.3a. It lost the seats, however, due to Green preferences which favoured Labor.

In the seat of Frankston, the primary vote for the two major parties was fairly evenly split at 35 per cent (Labor) to 35.8 per cent (Liberal). Geoff Shaw, the sitting member for Frankston who was standing as an Independent, garnered 12.9 per cent of the primary vote. As the seat was eventually won by Labor by only a 0.5 per cent margin, it would appear that the former member of the Liberal Party split the non-Labor vote.

Table 7.3a: Preference flows in the four sand-belt seats

 

% share of first preference vote Labor

% share of first preference vote Liberal

% preference flows* from the last excluded candidate to:

% two-party preferred result

 

Labor

Liberal

 

Bentleigh

38.6

45.8

85.0

15.0

50.8 ALP

Carrum

42.2

45.2

77.7

22.3

50.7 ALP

Frankston

35.0

35.8

36.0

64.0

50.5 ALP

Mordialloc

38.7

43.8

81.2

18.8

52.1 ALP

*In all seats except Frankston, the last excluded candidate had been a candidate for the Greens. In Frankston, the last excluded candidate was former Independent MP Geoff Shaw.

As these seats remain on very narrow margins, they are likely to be yet again the focus of considerable interest at the next election.

Table 7.3b: Total seats lost by the Liberal Party at the 2014 election

District

2010 results Liberal
(%)

Estimated 2010 results on new boundaries Liberal (%)

2014 results Liberal (%)

Won by

New majority non-Liberal (%)

Bellarine#

48.6

51.9

45.2

ALP

4.8

Bentleigh

50.8

51.3

49.2

ALP

0.8

Carrum

52.0

50.2

49.3

ALP

0.7

Frankston

52.1

50.4

49.5

ALP

0.5

Monbulk#

48.1

51.0

45.0

ALP

5.0

Mordialloc

52.1

51.5

47.9

ALP

2.1

Prahran

54.3

54.8

49.6

GRN

0.4

Source: Compiled from VEC data.

Frankston is included here because it was won by the Liberal Party at the 2010 election.

# Seats which had been deemed notionally Liberal held seats after the redivision of electoral boundaries.

The seat of Prahran was also lost by the Liberal Party to the Greens. (Analysis of the results is discussed in the section on the Greens on the following page). The Liberal Party lost despite local Member, Clem Newton-Brown, winning 44.8 per cent of the primary vote. Prahran has been something of a bellwether seat for the last four elections, with a tendency to shift allegiance to the party winning government. In this case however, the seat was won by the Greens candidate, Sam Hibbins, from third place in terms of his primary vote.

The Liberal Party won 23 of its 30 seats in the Legislative Assembly on its primary vote. The seats that were won on preferences were: Bass, Bayswater, Eildon, Forest Hill, Ringwood, Ripon and South Barwon.

Ripon is the most marginal seat held by the Liberal Party following this election, (0.8 per cent). Retained by former Labor Minister Joe Helper at the 2010 election, it converted to a notionally Liberal held seat upon the redivision of electoral boundaries, with an estimated margin of 1.5 per cent. The retirement of Mr Helper at the election weakened any incumbency advantage for the Labor Party and it was widely expected that the seat would be won by the Liberal Party.[footnote 225]

Despite a significant primary vote of 18.3 per cent for the National Party candidate, preference leakages to the Labor Party during the distribution of preferences made it a close call, with the Liberal Party candidate eventually winning Ripon on a narrow margin.

Table 7.3c: Preference flows in Ripon

 

% share of first preference vote Labor

% share of first preference vote Liberal

% preference flows from the last excluded candidate (National Party) to

% two-party preferred result

 

Labor

Liberal

 

Ripon

35.1

32.8

30.7

69.3

50.8 LIB

Source: State Election 2014: Ripon District VEC website.

7.4 The Nationals

The 2014 election was a setback for the Nationals. The setback however, started in 2013 at the redivision of electoral boundaries, when the seat of Rodney was abolished.

It was expected that then Minister Russell Northe would face a challenge at the election in the seat of Morwell because of discontent about the Government's perceived delayed response to the health concerns of residents living with the consequences of the Hazelwood mine fire.[footnote 226] One of the candidates, Tracie Lund, was running a community campaign along the lines of that run in the seat of Indi at the 2013 federal election that saw independent candidate Cathy McGowan topple the sitting Member, Sophie Mirabella.

In the event, the result was the traditional contest between the Nationals and Labor candidates. Russell Northe survived a swing against him (based on the new boundaries) of -11.5 per cent to retain the seat by a margin of 1.8 per cent.

What was not anticipated, however, was the loss by the Nationals of the seat of Shepparton. Shepparton had been a Country/National Party seat for 47 years and one of the Nationals' safest seats.

There was much discussion in the media about the possible reasons for the defeat of the Nationals, and it is likely to have been the product of a combination of factors.

It is likely that the retirement of the sitting member and former Minister, Jeanette Powell, prior to the election, diminished the incumbency effect in the electorate. Additionally, like the seat of Morwell, Independent candidate Suzanna Sheed was running a community campaign.[footnote 227] There was news coverage which argued that the Nationals should have allowed their Coalition partner to also stand in the seat in order to send their preferences to the Nationals.[footnote 228]

Others voiced concern over the timing of remarks by federal Coalition government Minister Barnaby Joyce about Shepparton in an ABC series on the National Party aired a few days before the election.[footnote 229] Mr Joyce said that as the seat of Shepparton was won by the Liberal Party (rather than the Nationals) at the 2013 federal election, the voters of Shepparton should be looking to the Liberal Party rather than the Nationals to financially rescue SPC Ardmona from the threat of closure.[footnote 230]

There was also discussion about the support for the Independent by the local Shepparton newspaper; that there was a sense that the bailout of SPC by the Coalition and funding promises made for the area during the election were 'too little too late'; and that the Nationals were focussing their resources in nearby Euroa.[footnote 231]

Table 7.4a: Shepparton

District

2010 results Nationals (%)

Estimated 2010 results on new boundaries Nationals (%)

2014 results Nationals (%)

Won by

New majority by Independent (%)

Shepparton

76.0

76.0

47.4

IND

2.6

Source: State Election 2014: Shepparton District VEC website.

7.5 The Greens

The Greens had a successful 2014 election, winning an historic two seats in the Legislative Assembly. The seat of Melbourne was won from the Labor Party and the seat of Prahran was won from the Liberal Party.

As can be seen in Table 7.5a, the Greens won the seat of Melbourne due to their high primary vote and via preference leakages from the Liberal Party candidate.

Table 7.5a: Preference flows in Melbourne

 

% share of first preference vote ALP

% share of first preference vote GRN

% preference flows from the last excluded candidate (Liberal Party) to

% two-party preferred result

 

Labor

Greens

 

Melbourne

29.3

41.4

67.7

32.3

52.4 GRN

Source: State Election 2014: Melbourne District VEC website.

Prahran is particularly interesting because the Greens candidate (Sam Hibbins) came from third place in terms of primary vote share to win the seat. This was largely as a result of preferences from the Animal Justice Party candidate (as the second last excluded candidate) that lifted the Greens candidate ahead of the Labor Party candidate. Preferences flowing from the last excluded candidate (Labor) secured the Greens victory over the Liberal Party candidate.

Table 7.5b: Preference flows in Prahran

% share of first preference vote

 

Liberal

Labor

Greens

Prahran

44.8

25.9

24.7

Progressive total of votes

16582

9586

9160

Elimination of Independent candidate (Menadue) 82 votes - % share of preferences flowed to:

 

Liberal

Labor

Greens

 

12.2

8.5

13.4

Progressive total of votes

16592

9593

9171

Elimination of Independent candidate (Stephanopoulos) 241 votes - % share of preferences flowed to:

 

Liberal

Labor

Greens

 

21.6

19.1

19.5

Progressive total of votes

16644

9639

9218

Elimination of Family First candidate (Walker) 295 votes - % share of preferences flowed to:

 

Liberal

Labor

Greens

 

27.8

17.3

13.4

Progressive total of votes

16726

9690

9171

Elimination of Independent candidate (Goldsmith) 349 votes - % share of preferences flowed to:

 

Liberal

Labor

Greens

 

33.5

19.5

26.6

Progressive total of votes

16843

9758

9403

Elimination of Animal Justice Party candidate (Gullone) 999 votes - % share of preferences flowed to:

This is the point where the Greens overtake the Labor Party

 

Liberal

Labor

Greens

 

23.3

19

57.7

Progressive total of votes

17076

9948

9979

Elimination of last excluded candidate - Labor (Pharaoh) 9948 votes - % share of preferences flowed to:

 

Liberal

Greens

 

12.9

87.1

Final total of votes

18,363

18,640

         

Source: State Election 2014: Prahran District Distribution of preference votes VEC website.

In terms of primary vote, the Greens vote has remained fairly static since the last election, increasing from 11.21 per cent in 2010 to 11.48 per cent in 2014.

7.6 Independents

As already discussed under the Nationals section, Independent candidate Suzanna Sheed won the seat of Shepparton from the Nationals, which had a margin of 26 per cent. The seat is now on a margin of 2.6 per cent.

Other Independent candidates that garnered encouraging primary vote results at the election were in Mildura, Lowan, Frankston[footnote 232] and Morwell with 21.3 per cent, 14.2 per cent, 12.9 per cent and 10.9 per cent, respectively.

7.7 Primary vote performance of parties

The following table shows the primary vote performance of the parties (and independent candidates collectively) by number and percentage share.

Table 7.7a: Primary vote performance of parties – Legislative Assembly

Party

First preference votes

% of first preference vote

ALP

1,278,322

38.10

Liberal

1,223,474

36.46

Australian Greens

385,190

11.48

The Nationals

185,619

5.53

Australian Country Alliance

43,038

1.28

Family First

37,194

1.11

Australian Christians

26,545

0.79

Rise Up Australia Party

20,795

0.62

Voice for the West

16,584

0.49

Sex Party

8,930

0.27

Animal Justice Party

7,778

0.23

DLP

2,799

0.08

Shooters and Fishers Party

2,622

0.08

Socialist Alliance

1,728

0.05

People Power Victoria No Smart Meters

1,375

0.04

The Basics Rock 'N' Roll Party

1,043

0.03

Other Candidates

112,289

3.35

Total

3,355,325

100.0

Source: State Election 2014 Results Overall Lower House results VEC website.

8. Outcome in the Legislative Council

8.1 Summary of the result

A total of 3,539,762 votes were cast for the Legislative Council's eight regions. This was 93 per cent of total voters enrolled. Informal votes amounted to 121,482 votes, or 3.4 per cent of the total votes counted.

As can be seen in Table 8.1a, there were eight parties elected to the Legislative Council. They were: the Labor Party, the Liberal Party, the Nationals, the Greens, the Shooters and Fishers Party, the DLP, the Sex Party and the Vote 1 Local Jobs Party.

Table 8.1a: Legislative Council composition by party and region

Region

ALP

LIB

NATS

GRN

SFPV

DLP

SP

V1LJ

Eastern Metro

1

3

-

1

-

-

-

-

Eastern Vic

2

1

1

-

1

-

-

-

Northern Metro

2

1

-

1

-

-

1

-

Northern Vic

2

1

1

-

1

-

-

-

Sth Eastern Metro

2

2

-

1

-

-

-

-

Southern Metro

1

3

-

1

-

-

-

-

Western Metro

2

1

-

1

-

1

-

-

Western Vic

2

2

-

-

-

-

-

1

Total (40)

14

14

2

5

2

1

1

1

Coalition = 16

Source: State Election 2014 Results Overall Upper House results VEC website.

As a result of the composition of the Legislative Council, the Labor Party will need to rely on the support of other parties in the chamber, to enable the passing of its legislation.

8.2 The Labor Party

The Labor Party won two fewer seats in the Legislative Council at the 2014 election compared to 2010. Its total of 14 seats equals 35 per cent of the Council's membership. The losses were in Eastern Metropolitan and South Eastern Metropolitan. Both of those seats were won by Greens candidates.

Labor's first preference share was 33.5 per cent, almost two percentage points lower than at the 2010 election.[footnote 233]

The best results for Labor were in the Western Metropolitan region (44.0 per cent), Northern Metropolitan region (40.4 per cent) and the South Eastern Metropolitan region (40.1 per cent). Its lowest first preference vote was in the Southern Metropolitan region (25.2 per cent).

8.3 The Liberal Party

The Liberal Party won four fewer seats in the Legislative Council at the 2014 election, compared to 2010. Its total of 14 seats, like the Labor Party, equals 35 per cent of the Council's membership. Its losses were in the Eastern Victoria, Northern Metropolitan, Northern Victoria and the Western Metropolitan regions. These seats were won by the Shooters and Fishers Party; the Australian Sex Party; the Shooters and Fishers Party again and the DLP, respectively.

The best results for the Liberal Party were in Eastern Metropolitan (45.7 per cent) and Southern Metropolitan (42.7 per cent). Its lowest first preference vote was in the Northern Metropolitan region (21.9 per cent).

8.4 The Nationals

The Nationals lost a seat in the Legislative Council at the 2014 election as compared to 2010. Its total of two seats equals five per cent of the Council's membership. It lost a seat in Western Victoria region, which was won by the Vote 1 Local Jobs party.

Due to the joint ticket arrangements between the Liberal Party and the Nationals in the three regions which are contested by the Nationals, it is not possible to determine the true first preference vote for the Nationals. Above the line voting for the Liberal/Nationals ticket cannot be disaggregated by party.

8.5 The Greens

The Greens had its best result so far in the Legislative Council at the 2014 election, winning two further seats compared to 2010. Its total of five seats equals 12.5 per cent of the Council's membership. As already stated, the Greens' extra seats were won in the Eastern Metropolitan region and the South Eastern Metropolitan region. These seats were won by the Labor Party at the previous election.

The Greens best first preference results were in Northern Metropolitan (18.6 per cent) and Southern Metropolitan regions (15.5 per cent). Its lowest first preference vote was in the South Eastern Metropolitan region (6.3 per cent).

8.6 The Shooters and Fishers Party

The Shooters and Fishers Party achieved a historic result at the election by winning two seats in the Legislative Council, which is the first time it has had representation in the Victorian Parliament. Jeffrey Bourman won the fourth seat in the Eastern Victoria region with 2.4 per cent of the first preference vote and Daniel Young won the fourth seat in the Northern Victoria region with 3.5 per cent of the first preference vote. As already stated, both of these seats were won by Liberal Party candidates in the previous election.

8.7 The Democratic Labour Party (DLP)

The DLP was previously elected to the Legislative Council at the 2006 election, when Peter Kavanagh won the last seat in the Western Victoria region. He subsequently lost his seat at the 2010 election.

At the 2014 election, the DLP candidate, Rachel Carling-Jenkins won the last seat in the Western Metropolitan region with a first preference vote of 2.6 per cent. It had been won by the Liberal Party at the previous election.

8.8 Australian Sex Party

The Sex Party (SP) had a historic win at the election, gaining a seat in the Legislative Council for the first time. Fiona Patten won the fifth seat in the Northern Metropolitan region with 2.9 per cent of the first preference vote. The contest for that final seat was between the SP and Family First.

8.9 Vote 1 Local Jobs

The Vote 1 Local Jobs (V1LJ) party also had a historic win at the election, gaining a seat in the Legislative Council for the first time. James Purcell won the fifth seat in the Western Victoria region with 1.3 per cent of the first preference vote.

As can be seen in table 8.9a, there were ten parties that had a higher first preference vote than the Vote 1 Local Jobs Party in Western Victoria region. James Purcell won 5,501 first preference votes, but by the completion of preference transfers, had reached the quota of 72,940. Therefore a significant 92.5 per cent of the quota was acquired through the transfer of preferences.

Professor of Political Science and political commentator Brian Costar has explained how the Single Transferable Vote (STV) voting system used for Upper House elections can result in candidates winning a seat from a low base of first preferences by attracting preferences from across the political spectrum. Such outcomes are possible because the majority of electors vote above the line and, accordingly, preference allocations follow parties' group voting tickets.[footnote 234]

Table 8.9a: First preference votes for selected parties in Western Victoria region

LIB/NATS

ALP

GRN

SP

PUP

Lib Dems

SFPV

FF

AJP

DLP

V1LJ

37.0

34.1

9.2

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.3

2.0

1.7

1.5

1.3

Source: State Election 2014: Western Victoria region VEC website.

Table 8.9b: First preference vote by Legislative Council region

Region

ALP

Liberal

Nationals

Greens

SFPV

DLP

SP

V1LJ

Eastern Metro

28.7

45.7

 

10.5

0.8

2.3

2.1

-

Eastern Vic

29.0

41.6*

8.5

2.4

0.7

2.5

-

Northern Metro

40.4

21.9

 

18.6

1.1

3.0

2.9

0.4

Northern Vic

26.4

41.2*

7.7

3.5

4.2

3.3

-

South Eastern Metro

40.1

35.2

 

6.3

1.2

2.2

2.7

-

Southern Metro

25.2

42.7

 

15.5

0.5

2.2

2.4

-

Western Metro

44.0

23.6

 

10.3

1.2

2.6

2.7

-

Western Vic

34.1

37*

9.2

2.3

1.5

2.5

1.3

Source: State Election 2014 Results Overall Upper House results VEC website.

* Joint Liberal/Nationals ticket. BOLD type in minor and micro parties section indicates where seats were won by those parties.

8.10 Composition of the Legislative Council

Table 8.10a below shows the percentage of first preference votes achieved by each party and how this translates to the number of successful candidates and the proportion of seats obtained in the Legislative Council. It is important to note that the joint Liberal/Nationals ticket in the three non-metropolitan regions precludes an accurate allocation of the primary vote for either party, individually.

As can be seen in table 8.10a, the composition of the Legislative Council reflects the first preference votes to a degree. The largest disparities were the Coalition which achieved 36.1 per cent of the primary vote and 40 per cent of the seats, the Shooters and Fishers Party which achieved 1.7 per cent of the vote and 5.0 per cent of the seats and the Vote 1 Local Jobs party which achieved 0.2 per cent of the vote and 2.5 per cent of the seats.

Table 8.10a: First preference votes and composition of the Legislative Council

 

First preference vote (%)

Number of successful candidates

Seats in Legislative Council (%)

Party

Labor

33.46

14

35.0

Liberal

20.82

10

25.0

Liberal/Nationals

15.32

6 (4 Lib + 2 Nats)

15.0

Greens

10.75

5

12.5

Liberal Democrats

3.06

0

0.0

Sex Party

2.63

1

2.5

DLP

2.32

1

2.5

Palmer United Party

1.95

0

0.0

Family First

1.83

0

0.0

Animal Justice Party

1.70

0

0.0

Shooters and Fishers Party

1.65

2

5.0

Australian Christians

1.03

0

0.0

Australian Country Alliance

0.68

0

0.0

Australian Cyclists Party

0.61

0

0.0

Rise Up Australia Party

0.52

0

0.0

Voluntary Euthanasia Party (Victoria)

0.49

0

0.0

People Power Victoria-No Smart Meters

0.35

0

0.0

Voice for the West

0.32

0

0.0

Vote 1 Local Jobs

0.21

1

2.5

The Basics Rock 'N' Roll Party

0.19

0

0.0

Other Candidates

0.13

0

0.0

Total

100

40

100

Source: compiled from State Election 2014 Results Overall Upper House results VEC website.

 

       
     
 
   



9. Further results

9.1 Women Parliamentarians

The number of women in Parliament has increased over the last few parliaments. The 2014 election saw 48 women elected to the Victorian Parliament, which is an increase of six since the 2010 election. Table 9.1a shows the number of women elected to the last three parliaments and that number represented as a percentage of the total number of MPs.

Table 9.1a: Women in Parliament

Election

Number of women

Percentage of women

2014

48

37.5

2010

42

32.8

2006

38

29.7

Source: VEC data.

The following table outlines the number and percentage of women by party:

Table 9.1b: Number and percentage of women elected by party

Party

Number of women

Party Total

Percentage of women by party

Labor

27

61

44

Liberal

11

44

25

Nationals

2

10

20

Greens

5

7

72

DLP

1

1

100

Sex Party

1

1

100

Shooters and Fishers Party

0

2

0

Vote 1 Local Jobs

0

1

0

Others/Independents

1

1

100

Total

48

128

37.5

Source: VEC data.

The number of women in the Cabinet also increased following the election. There are nine women in the 21 member Andrews Ministry or 43 per cent of the membership. They are: Jacinta Allan, Jill Hennessy, Lily D'Ambrosio, Jaala Pulford, Jane Garrett, Fiona Richardson, Lisa Neville, Natalie Hutchins and Jenny Mikakos. Six of these nine women were in the Labor Shadow Ministry in the previous Parliament. Table 9.1c shows the Andrews Ministry by portfolio, with the portfolios held by women highlighted.

Table 9.1c: The Andrews Ministry

Minister

Portfolios

Daniel Andrews

Premier

James Merlino

Deputy Premier; Education

Tim Pallas

Treasurer

Martin Pakula

Attorney-General; Racing

Jacinta Allan

Public Transport; Employment; Leader of the House

Jill Hennessy

Health; Ambulance Services

Martin Foley

Housing, Disability and Ageing; Mental Health; Creative Industries

Wade Noonan

Police ; Corrections

Richard Wynne

Planning

Jaala Pulford

Agriculture; Regional Development

Lily D'Ambrosio

Industry; Energy and Resources

Luke Donnellan

Roads and Road Safety; Ports

John Eren

Tourism and Major Events; Sport; Veterans' Affairs

Jane Garrett

Emergency Services; Consumer Affairs; Gaming and Liquor Regulation

Gavin Jennings

Leader of Government in Upper House; Special Minister of State

Fiona Richardson

Women; Prevention of Family Violence

Robin Scott

Finance; Multicultural Affairs

Adem Somyurek

Small Business, Innovation and Trade

Lisa Neville

Environment; Climate Change; Water

Natalie Hutchins

Local Government; Aboriginal Affairs; Industrial Relations

Jenny Mikakos

Families and Children; Youth Affairs

9.2 New and departing MPs

The 2014 election saw 36 new MPs enter Parliament with 23 new Members elected to the Assembly and 13 new Members for the Council. The new MPs constituted 28.13 per cent of the total membership of the Parliament, which was a higher turnover than the 2010 election but slightly smaller than the number of new MPs entering Parliament in 2006.

Several Members also moved Houses, with former Upper House Member Matthew Guy successfully contesting the seat of Bulleen in the Assembly (and becoming the Leader of the Opposition) and the former Member for Eltham, Steve Herbert, elected in the Legislative Council region of Northern Victoria. The 2013 redistribution led to the abolition of the seat of Doncaster, which was held by Mary Wooldridge (then Minister for Mental Health and Community Services). Wooldridge won the first seat in the Eastern Metropolitan region in the Legislative Council at the 2014 election. The following two tables set out the new Members in the Assembly and Council, the districts/regions they will represent, and their party affiliations.

Table 9.2a: New Members in the Legislative Assembly

Member

District

Party

Brian Paynter

Bass

Liberal

Nick Staikos

Bentleigh

Labor

Sonya Kilkenny

Carrum

Labor

Gabrielle Williams

Dandenong

Labor

Vicki Ward

Eltham

Labor

Danny Pearson

Essendon

Labor

Steph Ryan

Euroa

Nationals

Paul Edbrooke

Frankston

Labor

Chris Couzens

Geelong

Labor

John Pesutto

Hawthorn

Liberal

Tim Smith

Kew

Liberal

Emma Kealy

Lowan

Nationals

Mary-Anne Thomas

Macedon

Labor

Ellen Sandell

Melbourne

Greens

Tim Richardson

Mordialloc

Labor

Steve Dimopoulos

Oakleigh

Labor

Lizzie Blandthorn

Pascoe Vale

Labor

Sam Hibbins

Prahran

Greens

Louise Staley

Ripon

Liberal

Suzanna Sheed

Shepparton

Independent

Natalie Suleyman

St Albans

Labor

Josh Bull

Sunbury

Labor

Ros Spence

Yuroke

Labor

 

Table 9.2b: New Members in the Legislative Council

Member

Region

Party

Samantha Dunn

Eastern Metropolitan

Greens

Harriet Shing

Eastern Metropolitan

ALP

Jeff Bourman

Eastern Victoria

Shooters and Fishers Party

Daniel Mulino

Eastern Victoria

ALP

Fiona Patten

Northern Metropolitan

Sex Party

Daniel Young

Northern Victoria

Shooters and Fishers Party

Jaclyn Symes

Northern Victoria

ALP

Philip Dalidakis

Southern Metropolitan

ALP

Margaret Fitzherbert

Southern Metropolitan

Liberal

Nina Springle

South Eastern Metropolitan

Greens

Rachel Carling-Jenkins

Western Metropolitan

DLP

Joshua Morris

Western Victoria

Liberal

James Purcell

Western Victoria

Vote 1 Local Jobs

Twenty-three Members of the Victorian Parliament chose not to renominate and announced they would retire at the 2014 state election. This included 16 Members of the Legislative Assembly and eight Members of the Legislative Council. The number of Members retiring at this election was significantly more than the ten Members who retired at the 2010 State election, but less than the 26 Members who retired at the 2006 election. The following table lists the 23 Members who retired, the districts and regions that they represented and their party membership.

Table 9.2c: Members who retired at the election

Member

District or Region

Party

Ted Baillieu[footnote 235]

Hawthorn (Assembly, 1999-2014)

Liberal

Ann Barker

Bentleigh (Assembly, 1988-1992)

Oakleigh (Assembly, 1999-2014)

ALP

Liz Beattie

Yuroke (Assembly, 2002-2014)

Tullamarine (Assembly, 1999-2002)

ALP

Christine Campbell

Pascoe Vale (Assembly, 1996-2014)

ALP

Andrea Coote

Southern Metropolitan (Council, 2006-2014)

Monash (Council, 1999-2006)

Liberal

Kaye Darveniza

Northern Victoria (Council, 2006-2014)

Melbourne West (Council, 1999-2006)

ALP

Hugh Delahunty

Lowan (Assembly, 2002-2014)

Wimmera (Assembly, 1999-2002)

Nationals

Joanne Duncan

Macedon (Assembly, 2002-2014)

Gisborne (Assembly, 1999-2002)

ALP

Joe Helper

Ripon (Assembly, 1999-2014)

ALP

David Koch

Western Victoria (Council, 2006-2014)

Western (Council, 2002-2006)

Liberal

Nicholas Kotsiras

Bulleen (Assembly, 1999-2014)

Liberal

Jan Kronberg

Eastern Metropolitan (Council, 2006-2014)

Liberal

John Lenders

Southern Metropolitan (Council, 2006-2014)

Waverley (Council, 2002-2006)

Dandenong North (Assembly, 1999-2002)

ALP

Marg Lewis

Northern Victoria (Council, appointed to fill a casual vacancy on 11 June 2014)

ALP

Justin Madden

Essendon (Assembly, 2010-2014)

Western Metropolitan (Council, 2006-2010)

Doutta Galla (Council, 1999-2006)

ALP

Andrew McIntosh

Kew (Assembly, 1999-2014)

Liberal

John Pandazopoulos

Dandenong (Assembly, 1992-2014)

ALP

Jeanette Powell

Shepparton (Assembly, 2002-2014)

North Eastern (Council, 1996-2002)

Nationals

Johan Scheffer

Eastern Victoria (Council, 2006-2014)

Monash (Council, 2002-2006)

ALP

Ken Smith

Bass (Assembly, 2002-2014)

South Eastern (Council, 1988-2002)

Liberal

Bill Sykes

Benalla (Assembly, 2002-2014)

Nationals

Ian Trezise

Geelong (Assembly, 1999-2014)

ALP

Matt Viney

Eastern Victoria (Council, 2006-2014)

Chelsea (Council, 2002-2006)

Frankston East (Assembly, 1999-2002)

ALP

On 2 February 2015, Peter Ryan, Leader of the Nationals, announced his resignation.[footnote 236] A by-election for Gippsland South was held on Saturday 14 March. Danny O'Brien vacated his seat in Eastern Victoria region in the Legislative Council to stand. He was duly elected in Gippsland South. The vacancy in Eastern Victoria region was filled by Melina Bath.

9.3 Voter turnout

At the 2014 election, 3,540,140 votes were counted, which consisted of 3,355,325 formal votes and 184,815 informal votes (5.22 per cent of votes counted) in the Legislative Assembly.[footnote 237] In the Legislative Council there were 3,539,762 votes counted and 121,482 informal votes (3.43 per cent of votes counted). There were 3,806,301 voters enrolled at the close of the roll. This represented a participation rate of 93.01 per cent in the Legislative Assembly and 93 per cent in the Legislative Council.

Early voting

A record number of electors cast their ballots before election day at the 2014 election. The final figure for pre-poll voting at early voting centres was 898,552 and the reported number of postal votes received was 302,794. The total of pre-poll voting was 1,201,346, which is an increase of nearly 40 per cent from the previous record number of early votes in 2010.[footnote 238]

Table 9.4a: Trend in early voting

Election

Pre-poll in person

Total number of early votes

2014

898,552

1,201,346

2010

559.857

817,263

Source: VEC data. See also VEC (2011) Report to Parliament on the 2010 Victorian State Election, p. 22.[footnote 239]

PUP candidate Maria Rigoni, who was unsuccessful in the election, filed a petition in the Supreme Court sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns. Rigoni argued that the high number of early votes rendered the election result invalid.[footnote 240] She claimed that the early voters failed to make a declaration that they were unable to vote on election day, as required by the law. Justice Gregory Garde dismissed the case in the Victorian Supreme Court on 24 March 2015. He stated that 'given that the voter … had properly voted apart from the early voting declaration' and would 'most likely' have given a declaration had he or she been asked by an election officer, it would be significant to disenfranchise a voter based on the misunderstanding or oversight of an election officer.[footnote 241]

By-elections

Prior to the 2014 state election, there had been four by-elections since the 2010 state election in the following districts: Broadmeadows, Niddrie, Melbourne and Lyndhurst. Voter participation was lowest in Melbourne with 68.62 per cent of eligible voters voting.[footnote 242] The table below provides information on the date of the by-election, the rate of voter turnout and the outcome. Notably, each of the by-elections were in Labor held seats and the Liberals did not stand any candidates. Labor retained each of their seats in the by-elections.

Table 9.4b: By-elections in the 57th Parliament

By-election

By-election date

Voter turnout (%)

Outcome

Broadmeadows

19 February 2011

78.45[footnote 243]

Labor retained

Niddrie

24 March 2012

84.80[footnote 244]

Labor retained

Melbourne

21 July 2012

68.62[footnote 245]

Labor retained

Lyndhurst

27 April 2013

80.07[footnote 246]

Labor retained

Source: By-election results VEC data.

Broadmeadows by-election

On 21 December 2010, shortly following the 2010 state election, former Premier John Brumby announced his resignation, triggering a by-election for the Broadmeadows district.[footnote 247] Labor candidate Frank McGuire was elected to the seat of Broadmeadows with 53.43 per cent of first preference votes.

Niddrie by-election

Former Attorney-General Rob Hulls, who had represented the district of Niddrie since 1996, announced his resignation on 27 January 2012.[footnote 248] The seat of Niddrie has been held by Labor since 1976 and was retained by Labor candidate Ben Carroll, who was elected to the Assembly after receiving 46.84 per cent of first preference votes.

Melbourne by-election

On 7 May 2012, former Minister Bronwyn Pike announced her resignation, which triggered a by-election for the seat of Melbourne.[footnote 249] In 2012, Labor candidate Jennifer Kanis was elected to the seat of Melbourne with 33.38 per cent of first preference votes. Greens candidate, Cathy Oke received 36.52 per cent of first preference votes. Following the distribution of preferences, however, Kanis won the seat with 51.51 per cent of two-party preferred votes, as reflected in the table below:

Table 9.4c: Melbourne by-election result

Candidate

First preference votes (%)

After distribution of preferences (%)

Jennifer Kanis (ALP)

33.38

51.51

Cathy Oke (Greens)

36.52

48.49

Source: VEC Melbourne by-election data.

Lyndhust by-election

On 15 February 2013, former Minister Tim Holding resigned, resulting in a by-election in which Labor candidate Martin Pakula was elected with 40.96 per cent of first preference votes.[footnote 250] Following the 2014 redistribution of boundaries, the seat of Lyndhurst has been largely replaced by the new electorate of Keysborough.

Informal voting

The rate of informal voting was 5.22 per cent for the Assembly and 3.43 per cent for the Council. As illustrated in Table 9.4d below, the rate of informal voting has increased in the Assembly.

Table 9.4d: Percentage of informal votes in the Assembly and Council

Election year

LA informal votes (%)

LC informal votes (%)

2014

5.22

3.43

2010

4.96

3.38

2006

4.56

4.28

2002

3.41

3.67

1999

3.02

3.37

Source: VEC data.

9.5 Number of candidates contesting the election

A record number of candidates contested the 2014 election. The total number of 896 candidates was 185 more than the previous record breaking number of candidates who contested the 2010 election (711).[footnote 251] Table 9.5a below shows the trend over the last two decades.

 

 

Table 9.5a: Percentage of candidates contesting the election

Election year

Number of candidates

2014

896

2010

711

2006

707

2002

477

1999

406

1996

421

1992

444

Source: VEC data.

The Assembly districts with the highest number of candidates were Frankston (14), Mordialloc (11) and Tarneit (10). Table 9.5b shows the number of candidates contesting Assembly districts, illustrating how many districts had two candidates, three candidates, four candidates and so forth in the election period 1999-2014.

Table 9.5b: Number of candidates contesting Legislative Assembly districts 1999-2014

Election Year

Number of candidates

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2014+

0

3

11

22

18

15

11

5

2010^

0

2

17

26

19

14

5

4

2006

0

0

23

35

19

10

1

0

2002

0

23

36

20

5

3

1

0

1999*

25

26

16

10

7

3

0

0

Source: VEC data.

+ In 2014 one district had ten candidates, one district had 11 candidates and one district had 14 candidates.

^ In 2010 one district had ten candidates.

* In 1999 one district had 19 candidates.

The Council region with the highest number of candidates contesting the election was Northern Metropolitan with 52 candidates. The Council region with the lowest number of candidates contesting the election was Northern Victoria which had 37 candidates.

Out of the 895 candidates contesting the election, there were 544 candidates for the 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 351 candidates for the eight Legislative Council regions. This meant that there was an average of 6.18 candidates standing for election per Legislative Assembly district, compared with 5.7 candidates standing for election per Assembly district in 2010. Table 9.5c, below, shows the total number of candidates standing for the Legislative Assembly and the average number of candidates per district.

Table 9.5c: Average number of candidates contesting Legislative Assembly seats at state elections since 1999

Election year

Total number of LA candidates

Average per LA district

2014

544

6.18

2010

502

5.70

2006

459

5.21

2002

372

4.22

1999

321

3.64

Source: VEC data.

In the Legislative Council regions, there was an average of 43.87 candidates per region in 2014, compared to 26.12 in 2010. As each region has five seats, this shows an average of 8.77 candidates per seat. Table 9.5d, below, shows the total number of Legislative Council candidates, followed by the average number of candidates per region and then the average number of candidates per seat on the left column.

Table 9.5d: Average number of candidates contesting vacancies in the Legislative Council

Election year

Total number of LC candidates

Average number per LC region

Average number per LC seat

2014

351

43.87

8.77

2010

209

26.12

5.22

2006

248

31.00

3.87

Source: VEC data.

 

 

10. Tables and results

The following data was derived from the Victorian Electoral Commission website.

Table 10a: Overall Legislative Assembly result by party

Party

First preference votes

% of first preference vote

Seats won

+/- in number of seats since 2010 election results*

 
 

ALP

1,278,322

38.1

47

5

 

Liberal

1,223,474

36.46

30

-5

 

Australian Greens

385,190

11.48

2

2

 

The Nationals

185,619

5.53

8

-2

 

Australian Country Alliance

43,038

1.28

0

-

 

Family First

37,194

1.11

0

-

 

Australian Christians

26,545

0.79

0

-

 

Rise Up Australia Party

20,795

0.62

0

-

 

Voice for the West

16,584

0.49

0

-

 

Sex party

8,930

0.27

0

-

 

Animal Justice Party

7,778

0.23

0

-

 

DLP

2,799

0.08

0

-

 

Shooter and Fishers Party Victoria

2,622

0.08

0

-

 

Socialist Alliance

1,728

0.05

0

-

 

People Power Victoria/No Smart Meters

1,375

0.04

0

-

 

The Basics Rock 'N' Roll Party

1,043

0.03

0

-

 

Other Candidates

112,289

3.35

1

-

 

Total

3,355,325

100

88

-

 

Source: State Election 2014 Results Overall Lower House results, VEC website.

*does not include notional seat changes due to the redivision of boundaries.

Table 10b: Legislative Assembly result by seat: first preference vote (number)

District

ALP

Lib.

Nat.

Greens

Others

Seat

won by

Albert Park

11,826

15,177

-

6,134

3,439

ALP

Altona

21,862

13,235

-

4,220

2,768

ALP

Bass

11,659

18,008

-

3,613

6,433

LIB

Bayswater

12,927

18,811

-

3,355

3,066

LIB

Bellarine

16,818

15,678

-

3,639

2,476

ALP

Benambra

12,273

21,430

-

3,568

1,973

LIB

Bendigo East

18,651

16,492

-

2,935

2,227

ALP

Bendigo West

18,247

12,328

-

4,482

3,074

ALP

Bentleigh

14,025

16,669

-

3,842

1,794

ALP

Box Hill

11,964

19,944

-

5,649

1,448

LIB

Brighton

8,973

21,145

-

6,619

1350

LIB

Broadmeadows

21,584

5,797

-

1,884

4,371

ALP

Brunswick

15,318

6,554

-

16,001

2,485

ALP

Bulleen

11,859

21,983

-

3,824

1,452

LIB

Bundoora

18,628

11,822

-

3,592

1,338

ALP

Buninyong

15,984

12,829

2,301

4,017

1,572

ALP

Burwood

12,995

18,902

-

4,904

960

LIB

Carrum

16,645

17,802

-

2,989

1,989

ALP

Caulfield

10,849

18,860

-

5,940

833

LIB

Clarinda

20,082

10,986

-

4,254

2,378

ALP

Cranbourne

17,365

16,536

-

1,668

4,468

ALP

Croydon

11,352

19,797

-

3,273

2,441

LIB

Dandenong

17,891

9,809

-

2,611

3,547

ALP

Eildon

10,375

16,070

2,253

4,323

3,986

LIB

Eltham

16,374

17,727

-

4,600

1,641

ALP

Essendon

16,026

14,052

-

7,065

2,040

ALP

Euroa

11,428

10,454

14,494

2,110

2,545

NAT

Evelyn

11,588

19,258

-

2,393

2,738

LIB

Ferntree Gully

11,967

19,452

-

3,279

1,391

LIB

Footscray

17,542

10,386

-

6,682

4,257

ALP

Forest Hill

12,984

18,340

-

3,289

2,279

LIB

Frankston

12,241

12,542

-

2,790

7,421

ALP

Geelong

16,516

15,232

-

4,833

3,674

ALP

Gembrook

11,568

20,646

-

3,197

2,350

LIB

Gippsland East

7,754

-

22,984

3,035

4,303

NAT

Gippsland South

7,819

-

20,468

3,436

4,022

NAT

Hastings

13,109

21,316

-

3,096

4,113

LIB

Hawthorn

9,117

20,551

-

8,042

-

LIB

Ivanhoe

14,133

15,730

-

6,147

3,292

ALP

Kew

10,448

22,552

-

6,433

-

LIB

Keysborough

19,678

11,811

-

2,126

3,479

ALP

Kororoit

23,913

8,690

-

2,921

4,133

ALP

Lara

21,457

11,090

-

3,413

2,404

ALP

Lowan

7,243

-

21,087

3,324

7,328

NAT

Macedon

14,677

16,376

-

5,841

1,061

ALP

Malvern

7,730

22,642

-

5,780

-

LIB

Melbourne

10,830

8,913

-

15,333

1,924

GRN

Melton

19,272

11,783

-

2,777

4,363

ALP

Mildura

4,244

-

16,794

671

14,727

NAT

Mill Park

22,807

10,317

-

2,640

2,383

ALP

Monbulk

14,096

15,063

-

5,029

3,360

ALP

Mordialloc

14,840

16,807

-

3,031

3,676

ALP

Mornington

10,762

23,184

-

4,618

869

LIB

Morwell

14,282

-

17,824

1,894

6,130

NAT

Mount Waverley

13,184

18,357

-

3,432

915

LIB

Mulgrave

17,150

14,622

-

2,525

1,548

ALP

Murray Plains

8,190

-

25,406

1,619

4,939

NAT

Narracan

12,223

22,907

-

3,720

2,646

LIB

Narre Warren Nth

17,421

14,849

-

2,114

2,991

ALP

Narre Warren Sth

19,501

16,212

-

2,465

2,299

ALP

Nepean

12,253

20,984

-

4,658

1,454

LIB

Niddrie

17,342

14,101

-

3,045

3,089

ALP

Northcote

15,928

6,407

-

14,101

2,435

ALP

Oakleigh

15,903

13,303

-

4,617

937

ALP

Ovens Valley

8,147

-

20,394

3,694

4,541

NAT

Pascoe Vale

18,679

10,416

-

6,372

3,690

ALP

Polwarth

11,045

21,861

-

4,352

2,206

LIB

Prahran

9,586

16,582

-

9,160

1,675

GRN

Preston

17,607

7,694

-

5,869

5,194

ALP

Richmond

13,349

8,308

-

12,615

5,830

ALP

Ringwood

11,777

17,440

-

3,903

3,137

LIB

Ripon

14,059

13,118

7,342

2,856

2,682

LIB

Rowville

12,419

18,758

-

2,566

1,096

LIB

Sandringham

9,103

19,264

-

5,144

3,840

LIB

Shepparton

7,218

-

14,272

1,365

17,515

IND

South Barwon

13,618

18,869

-

5,023

3,284

LIB

South-West Coast

11,507

23,234

-

3,993

2,048

LIB

St Albans

21,435

10,215

-

3,475

2,878

ALP

Sunbury

16,358

13,384

-

2,918

4,431

ALP

Sydenham

22,752

11,112

-

2,814

2,982

ALP

Tarneit

17,446

9,839

-

3,360

6,635

ALP

Thomastown

22,786

5,801

-

1,775

3,800

ALP

Warrandyte

11,289

21,982

-

4,032

1,333

LIB

Wendouree

15,712

14,408

-

3,629

2,584

ALP

Werribee

20,338

10,327

-

3,049

2,212

ALP

Williamstown

18,417

11,569

-

8,547

2,725

ALP

Yan Yean

17,499

17,030

-

2,945

3,215

ALP

Yuroke

20,484

8,943

-

2,277

6,163

ALP

Total

1,278,322

1,223,474

185,619

385,190

282,720

 

Source: VEC data.

Table 10c: Legislative Assembly result by seat: first preference vote (per cent)

District

First preference votes (%)

ALP

Lib.

Nat.

Greens

Others

Seat won by

Albert Park

32.33

41.49

-

16.77

9.40

ALP

Altona

51.95

31.45

-

10.03

6.58

ALP

Bass

29.36

45.35

-

9.10

16.20

LP

Bayswater

33.88

49.30

-

8.79

8.04

LP

Bellarine

43.56

40.61

-

9.42

6.41

ALP

Benambra

31.27

54.61

-

9.09

5.03

LP

Bendigo East

46.27

40.92

-

7.28

5.52

ALP

Bendigo West

47.85

32.33

-

11.75

8.06

ALP

Bentleigh

38.60

45.88

-

10.58

4.94

ALP

Box Hill

30.67

51.13

-

14.48

3.71

LP

Brighton

23.56

55.52

-

17.38

3.54

LP

Broadmeadows

64.17

17.23

-

5.60

12.99

ALP

Brunswick

37.96

16.24

-

39.65

6.16

ALP

Bulleen

30.32

56.20

-

9.78

3.71

LP

Bundoora

52.65

33.41

-

10.15

3.78

ALP

Buninyong

43.55

34.95

6.27

10.94

4.28

ALP

Burwood

34.41

50.06

-

12.99

2.54

LP

Carrum

42.22

45.15

-

7.58

5.05

ALP

Caulfield

29.74

51.70

-

16.28

2.29

LP

Clarinda

53.27

29.14

-

11.28

6.31

ALP

Cranbourne

43.37

41.30

-

4.17

11.17

ALP

Croydon

30.80

53.70

-

8.88

6.62

LP

Dandenong

52.84

28.97

-

7.71

10.48

ALP

Eildon

28.04

43.42

6.09

11.68

10.77

LP

Eltham

40.59

43.94

-

11.40

4.07

ALP

Essendon

40.90

35.86

-

18.03

5.2

ALP

Euroa

27.85

25.48

35.32

5.14

6.21

NAT

Evelyn

32.21

53.53

-

6.65

7.61

LP

Ferntree Gully

33.16

53.90

-

9.09

3.85

LP

Footscray

45.13

26.72

-

17.19

10.95

ALP

Forest Hill

35.19

49.71

-

8.92

6.18

LP

Frankston

34.98

35.84

-

7.97

21.22

ALP

Geelong

41.03

37.84

-

12.01

9.13

ALP

Gembrook

30.63

54.68

-

8.47

6.23

LP

Gippsland East

20.36

-

60.36

7.97

11.29

NAT

Gippsland South

21.87

-

57.26

9.61

11.25

NAT

Hastings

31.49

51.20

-

7.44

9.87

LP

Hawthorn

24.18

54.50

-

21.33

-

LP

Ivanhoe

35.96

40.02

-

15.64

8.38

ALP

Kew

26.50

57.19

-

16.31

-

LP

Keysborough

53.05

31.84

-

5.73

9.38

ALP

Kororoit

60.30

21.91

-

7.37

10.42

ALP

Lara

55.93

28.91

-

8.90

6.26

ALP

Lowan

18.58

-

54.09

8.53

18.80

NAT

Macedon

38.67

43.15

-

15.39

2.80

ALP

Malvern

21.38

62.63

-

15.99

-

LP

Melbourne

29.27

24.09

-

41.44

5.21

GRN

Melton

50.46

30.85

-

7.27

11.41

ALP

Mildura

11.65

-

46.09

1.84

40.41

NAT

Mill Park

59.79

27.05

-

6.92

6.25

ALP

Monbulk

37.54

40.12

-

13.39

8.94

ALP

Mordialloc

38.69

43.82

-

7.90

9.58

ALP

Mornington

27.29

58.79

-

11.71

2.20

LP

Morwell

35.59

-

44.42

4.72

15.28

NAT

Mount Waverley

36.74

51.15

-

9.56

2.55

LP

Mulgrave

47.84

40.79

-

7.04

4.32

ALP

Murray Plains

20.40

-

63.27

4.03

12.3

NAT

Narracan

29.46

55.20

-

8.96

6.37

LP

Narre Warren North

46.61

39.73

-

5.66

8.00

ALP

Narre Warren South

48.18

40.05

-

6.09

5.68

ALP

Nepean

31.14

53.33

-

11.84

3.69

LP

Niddrie

46.15

37.53

-

8.10

8.22

ALP

Northcote

40.98

16.48

-

36.28

6.25

ALP

Oakleigh

45.75

38.27

-

13.28

2.70

ALP

Ovens Valley

22.15

-

55.45

10.04

12.35

NAT

Pascoe Vale

47.70

26.60

-

16.27

9.42

ALP

Polwarth

27.99

55.39

-

11.03

5.59

LP

Prahran

25.91

44.81

-

24.75

4.52

GRN

Preston

48.42

21.16

-

16.14

14.28

ALP

Richmond

33.29

20.72

-

31.46

14.54

ALP

Ringwood

32.48

48.10

-

10.76

8.65

LP

Ripon

35.10

32.75

18.33

7.13

6.7

LP

Rowville

35.65

53.84

-

7.37

3.15

LP

Sandringham

24.37

51.58

-

13.77

10.28

LP

Shepparton

17.88

-

35.35

3.38

43.38

IND

South Barwon

33.38

46.25

-

12.31

8.07

LP

South-West Coast

28.22

56.97

-

9.79

5.02

LP

St Albans

56.40

26.88

-

9.14

7.57

ALP

Sunbury

44.10

36.08

-

7.87

11.94

ALP

Sydenham

57.37

28.02

-

7.10

7.52

ALP

Tarneit

46.80

26.39

-

9.01

17.81

ALP

Thomastown

66.70

16.98

-

5.20

11.12

ALP

Warrandyte

29.22

56.90

-

10.44

3.45

LP

Wendouree

43.24

39.66

-

9.99

7.11

ALP

Werribee

56.61

28.75

-

8.49

6.16

ALP

Williamstown

44.64

28.04

-

20.72

6.61

ALP

Yan Yean

43.01

41.85

-

7.24

7.90

ALP

Yuroke

54.09

23.62

-

6.01

16.27

ALP

Total

38.10

36.46

5.43

11.48

8.42

 

Source: VEC data.

Table 10d: Legislative Assembly result by seat: two-party preferred/two candidate preferred vote and swing to/from ALP

District

Two-party preferred vote (no.)

Two-party preferred vote (%)

Swing to/from ALP#

Status of Seat

ALP

Other

ALP

Other

Albert Park

19,370

17,206

52.96

47.04

1.66

ALP retain

Altona

26,366

15,777

62.56

37.44

0.16

ALP retain

Bass

18,049

21,664

45.45

54.55

8.15

LP retain

Bayswater

17,323

20,854

45.38

54.62

2.28

LP retain

Bellarine

21,174

17,437

54.84

45.16

6.74

ALP gain**

Benambra

15,848

23,452

40.33

59.67

6.23

LP retain

Bendigo East

22,187

18,118

55.05

44.95

2.05

ALP retain

Bendigo West

23,702

14,419

62.18

37.82

9.08

ALP retain

Bentleigh

18,449

17,881

50.78

49.22

2.08

ALP gain

Box Hill

17,298

21,744

44.31

55.69

3.81

LP retain

Brighton

15,330

22,777

40.23

59.77

4.73

LP retain

Broadmeadows

26,126

7,442

77.83

22.17

7.73

ALP retain

Brunswick

21,075

19,283G

52.22

47.78G

4.40

ALP retain

Bulleen

15,438

23,699

39.45

60.55

4.55

LP retain

Bundoora

22,035

13,376

62.23

37.77

1.73

ALP retain

Buninyong

20,697

16,006

56.39

43.61

4.89

ALP retain

Burwood

17,688

20,079

46.83

53.17

3.13

LP retain

Carrum

19,998

19,427

50.72

49.28

0.92

ALP gain

Caulfield

16,471

20,034

45.12

54.88

5.12

LP retain

Clarinda

24,832

12,879

65.85

34.15

3.45

ALP retain

Cranbourne

20,954

19,083

52.34

47.66

0.94

ALP retain

Croydon

15,108

22,005

40.71

59.29

2.81

LP retain

Dandenong

21,389

12,628

62.88

37.12

-1.12

ALP retain

Eildon

17,151

19,934

46.25

53.75

3.55

LP retain

Eltham

21,258

19,084

52.69

47.31

1.89

ALP retain

Essendon

22,988

16,195

58.67

41.33

4.37

ALP retain

Euroa

14,580

26,451N

35.53

64.47N

-0.87

NAT retain

Evelyn

14,562

21,476

40.41

59.59

3.21

LP retain

Ferntree Gully

15,238

20,849

42.23

57.77

3.73

LP retain

Footscray

25,065

13,802

64.49

35.51

-1.41

ALP retain

Forest Hill

16,717

20,286

45.18

54.82

-1.32

LP retain

Frankston

17,665

17,329

50.48

49.52

0.88

ALP gain

Geelong

22,556

17,699

56.03

43.97

2.13

ALP retain

Gembrook

15,545

22,324

41.05

58.95

-0.15

LP retain

Gippsland East

12,263

25,954N

32.09

67.91N

*5.19

NAT retain

Gippsland South

12,289

23,503N

34.33

65.67N

*6.93

NAT retain

Hastings

17,657

24,036

42.35

57.65

2.05

LP retain

Hawthorn

15,577

22,041

41.41

58.59

8.01

LP retain

Ivanhoe

20,991

18,311

53.41

46.59

1.61

ALP retain

Kew

15,510

23,899

39.36

60.64

4.96

LP retain

Keysborough

23,013

14,164

61.90

38.10

2.50

ALP retain

Kororoit

27,791

11,922

69.98

30.02

2.48

ALP retain

Lara

25,746

12,618

67.11

32.89

3.61

ALP retain

Lowan

11,199

27,773N

28.74

71.26N

0.54

NAT retain

Macedon

20,417

17,538

53.79

46.21

1.59

ALP retain

Malvern

12,205

23,958

33.75

66.25

4.25

LP retain

Melbourne

17,599

19,401G

47.56

52.44G

6.96

GRN gain

Melton

23,495

14,885

61.22

38.78

-2.38

ALP retain

Mildura

15,379i

21,271N

41.96i

58.04N

*-5.72

NAT retain

Mill Park

26,314

11,356

69.85

30.15

3.15

ALP retain

Monbulk

20,643

16,905

54.98

45.02

5.98

ALP gain**

Mordialloc

19,981

18,373

52.10

47.90

3.60

ALP gain

Mornington

14,759

24,711

37.39

62.61

3.49

LP retain

Morwell

19,343

20,787N

48.20

51.80N

11.50

NAT retain

Mount Waverley

16,211

19,489

45.41

54.59

4.01

LP retain

Mulgrave

19,528

16,317

54.48

45.52

2.38

ALP retain

Murray Plains

11,111

29,100N

27.63

72.37N

7.73

NAT retain

Narracan

16,095

25,482

38.71

61.29

4.61

LP retain

Narre Warren North

20,392

16,981

54.56

45.44

-0.04

ALP retain

Narre Warren South

22,461

18,016

55.49

44.51

-1.51

ALP retain

Nepean

16,684

22,694

42.37

57.63

6.17

LP retain

Niddrie

21,686

15,891

57.71

42.29

2.91

ALP retain

Northcote

21,783

17,088G

56.04

43.96G

4.32

ALP retain

Oakleigh

20,224

14,536

58.18

41.82

2.98

ALP retain

Ovens Valley

12,305

24,502N

33.43

66.57N

2.73

NAT retain

Pascoe Vale

26,244

13,060

66.77

33.23

-1.73

ALP retain

Polwarth

15,541

23,944

39.36

60.64

3.16

LP retain

Prahran

18,640G

18,363

50.37G

49.63

4.77

GRN gain

Preston

27,199

9,235

74.65

25.35

4.45

ALP retain

Richmond

20,798

19,304G

51.86

48.14G

2.77

ALP retain

Ringwood

16,250

19,919

44.93

55.07

1.33

LP retain

Ripon

19,728

20,329

49.25

50.75

0.75

LP retain**

Rowville

14,499

20,363

41.59

58.41

4.29

LP retain

Sandringham

15,920

21,393

42.67

57.33

7.87

LP retain

Shepparton

21,247i

19,123N

52.63i

47.37N

*12.72

IND gain

South Barwon

19,231

21,563

47.14

52.86

2.04

LP retain

South-West Coast

15,947

24,914

39.03

60.97

0.93

LP retain

St Albans

25,711

12,381

67.50

32.50

3.40

ALP retain

Sunbury

20,139

16,952

54.30

45.70

-2.10

ALP retain

Sydenham

26,301

13,394

66.26

33.74

4.66

ALP retain

Tarneit

24,139

13,239

64.58

35.42

2.98

ALP retain

Thomastown

26,611

7,317

78.43

21.57

6.33

ALP retain

Warrandyte

14,840

23,804

38.40

61.60

5.50

LP retain

Wendouree

20,270

16,063

55.79

44.21

5.69

ALP retain

Werribee

23,607

12,349

65.66

34.34

4.56

ALP retain

Williamstown

27,453

13,805

66.54

33.46

3.34

ALP retain

Yan Yean

21,831

18,858

53.65

46.35

3.65

ALP retain

Yuroke

25,839

11,869

68.52

31.48

2.42

ALP retain

Source: VEC data.

# Swing from estimated 2010 results based on the new boundaries, to 2014.

Notes: 'Other' refers to a Liberal candidate (unmarked), Nationals candidate (marked with an N), Greens candidate (marked with a G) or independent candidate (marked with an i). This is because an ALP candidate ran in each district and was one of the top two candidates in all but three seats: Mildura (Independent v Nationals), Prahran (Liberal v Greens) and Shepparton (Independent v Nationals). Swings to/from the Nationals are marked with an asterisk (*). Seats that changed hands notionally (i.e. where the seat had changed hands under the 2013 redistribution) are marked with a double asterisk (**).

The term 'two party preferred' (2PP) refers to a distribution of preferences between the two major parties - the ALP and the Coalition (Liberal/Nationals parties). 'Two candidate preferred' (2CP) refers to a distribution of preferences between the two candidates who are expected to come first and second in the election. In seats where the Greens or independent candidates were one of the two top candidates, the two candidate preferred results are provided (Brunswick, Melbourne, Northcote, Prahran and Richmond (Greens); Mildura and Shepparton (independent)).[footnote 252]

Table 10e: Overall Legislative Council result by party

Party

First preference vote (no.)

First preference vote (%)

Seats won

Animal Justice Party

58,128

1.70

0

Australian Christians

35,156

1.03

0

Australian Country Alliance

23,159

0.68

0

Australian Cyclists Party

20,699

0.61

0

Greens

367,592

10.75

5

Labor

1,143,774

33.46

14

DLP

79,298

2.32

1

Family First

62,422

1.83

0

Liberal

711,548

20.82

10

Liberal Democrats

104,510

3.06

0

Liberal/Nationals

523,510

15.32

6

Palmer United Party

66,674

1.95

0

People Power Victoria-No Smart Meters

120,22

0.35

0

Rise Up Australia Party

17,670

0.52

0

Sex Party

89,737

2.63

1

Shooters and Fishers Party

56,527

1.65

2

The Basics Rock 'N' Roll Party

6,340

0.19

0

Voice for the West

11,064

0.32

0

Voluntary Euthanasia Party (Victoria)

16,769

0.49

0

Vote 1 Local Jobs

7,108

0.21

1

Other Candidates

4,573

0.13

0

Total

3,418,280

100

40

Source: VEC data.

Table 10f: Legislative Council result by region

Region

First preference votes

% of first preference vote

Candidates elected in order

 

191,943

45.33

Mary Wooldridge (Liberal)

Eastern

120,069

28.35

Shaun Leane (Labor)

Metropolitan

498

0.12

Bruce Atkinson (Liberal)

 

640

0.15

Richard Dalla-Riva (Liberal)

 

41,665

9.85

Samantha Dunn (Greens)

 

180,013

41.21

Edward O'Donohue (Liberal)

 

124,762

28.56

Harriet Shing (Labor)

Eastern

455

0.10

Danny O'Brien (Nationals)

Victoria

10,481

2.40

Jeffrey Bourman (Shooters and Fishers)

 

672

0.15

Daniel Mulino (Labor )

 

165,122

40.08

Jenny Mikakos (Labor)

Northern

88,980

21.60

Craig Ondarchie (Liberal)

Metropolitan

71,808

17.43

Greg Barber (Greens)

 

562

0.14

Nazih Elasmar (Labor )

 

11,733

2.85

Fiona Patten (Sex Party)

 

177,415

40.54

Wendy Lovell (Liberal)

Northern

113,617

25.96

Steven Herbert (Labor )

Victoria

1,147

0.26

Damian Drum (Nationals)

 

15,070

3.44

Daniel Young (Shooters and Fishers)

 

289

0.07

Jaclyn Symes (Labor )

 

166,418

39.53

Gavin Jennings (Labor )

South-

147,204

34.97

Gordon Rich-Phillips (Liberal)

Eastern

610

0.14

Adem Somyurek (Labor )

Metropolitan

426

0.10

Inga Peulich (Liberal)

 

25,503

6.06

Nina Springle (Greens)

 

175,146

42.29

David Davis (Liberal)

Southern

102,218

24.68

Philip Dalidakis (Labor )

Metropolitan

552

0.13

Georgie Crozier (Liberal)

 

61,683

14.89

Sue Pennicuik (Greens)

 

592

0.14

Margaret Fitzherbert (Liberal)

 

189,454

43.49

Cesar Melhem (Labor )

Western

101,317

23.26

Bernie Finn (Liberal)

Metropolitan

408

0.09

Khalil Eideh (Labor )

 

43,074

9.89

Colleen Hartland (Greens)

 

11,048

2.54

Rachel Carling-Jenkins (DLP)

 

160,000

36.56

Simon Ramsay (Liberal)

Western

147,214

33.64

Jaala Pulford (Labor )

Victoria

600

0.14

Josh Morris (Liberal)

 

761

0.17

Gayle Tierney (Labor )

 

5,501

1.26

James Purcell (Vote 1 Local Jobs)

Source: VEC data.

Table 10g: Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council voting statistics

Election

House

Enrolled

Turnout (no.)

Turnout (%)

Formal (no.)

Formal (%)

Informal (no.)

Informal (%)

2014

LA

3,806,301

3,540,140

93.01

3,355,325

94.78

184,815

5.22

LC

3,539,762

93.00

3,418,280

96.57

121,482

3.43

2010

LA

3,582,232

3,329,865

92.96

3,164,729

95.04

165,136

4.96

LC

3,328,861

92.93

3,216,386

96.62

112,475

3.38

2006

LA

3,353,845

3,109,907

92.73

2,967,993

95.44

141,914

4.56

LC

3,110,172

92.73

2,976,929

95.72

133,243

4.28

2002

LA

3,228,456

3,007,342

93.15

2,904,551

96.58

102,791

3.42

LC

3,006,200

93.12

2,895,778

96.33

110,422

3.67

1999

LA

3,159,215

2,918,546

92.38

2,830,271

96.98

88,275

3.02

LC

2,918,410

92.38

2,820,010

96.63

98,400

3.37

1996

LA

3,000,076

2,822,531

94.08

2,757,567

97.70

64,964

2.30

LC

2,826,467

94.21

2,753,667

97.42

72,800

2.58

1992

LA

2,855,471

2,716,297

95.13

2,612,896

96.19

103,401

3.81

LC

2,718,936

95.22

2,607,309

95.89

111,627

4.11

Source: VEC data.

 

Table 10h: Victorian election results 1988 – 2014

LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL

 

Total formal vote share (%)

Seats won*

Party

1988

1992

1996

1999

2002

2006

2010

2014

1988

1992

1996

1999

2002

2006

2010

2014

Liberal

43.50

43.49

43.87

39.70

34.51

34.55

43.04

20.82^

10

14

14

11

3

15

18

14

Labor

48.13

38.56

40.49

42.23

47.49

41.45

35.36

33.46

9

5

5

8

17

19

16

14

Greens

-

-

-

2.23

10.87

10.58

12.01

10.75

0

0

0

0

0

3

3

5

Nationals

7.48

8.74

6.63

7.28

4.37

4.43

0.11#

^

3

3

3

3

2

2

3

2

Liberal/Nationals

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

15.32^

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Total Coalition

50.98

52.23

50.50

46.98

38.88

38.98

43.15

36.14

13

17

17

14

5

17

21

16

Democratic Labour Party

-

4.54

1.58

-

-

1.97

2.33

2.32

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

1

Sex Party

-

-

-

-

-

-

1.91

2.63

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

Shooters and Fishers Party

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

1.65

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

Vote 1 Local Jobs

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

0.21

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

Others

0.89

4.66

7.43

8.57

2.76

7.02

5.22

12.84

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

*Prior to 2006, the Council comprised 44 members half of whom retired at each election.
#Note: The Nationals low vote share for 2010 is due to a Coalition ticket.
^The Nationals ran on a joint ticket with the Liberal Party in the non-metropolitan regions in 2014.

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY

 

Total formal vote share (%)

Seats won

Party

1988

1992

1996

1999

2002

2006

2010

2014

1988

1992

1996

1999

2002

2006

2010

2014

Liberal

40.50

44.00

44.00

42.22

33.91

34.44

38.03

36.46

33

52

49

36

17

23

35

30

Labor

46.50

38.67

43.10

45.57

47.95

43.06

36.25

38.10

46

27

29

42

62

55

43

47

Greens

-

-

-

1.15

9.73

10.04

11.21

11.48

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

Nationals

7.80

7.75

6.70

4.80

4.30

5.17

6.75

5.53

9

9

9

7

7

9

10

8

Others

2.70

9.40

6.20

5.98

3.97

3.01

5.48

8.42

0

0

1

3

2

1

0

1

                                                           

 

2014 Post Election Victorian Pendulum

Labor 47 - Greens 2

Electoral district

Margin (%)

Prahran (v LIB) Greens held

0.4

Frankston

0.5

Carrum

0.7

Bentleigh

0.8

Richmond (v GRN)

1.9

Mordialloc

2.1

Brunswick (v GRN)

2.2

Cranbourne

2.3

Melbourne (v ALP) Greens held

2.4

Eltham

2.7

Albert Park

3.0

Ivanhoe

3.4

Yan Yean

3.7

Macedon

3.8

Sunbury

4.3

Mulgrave

4.5

Narre Warren North

4.6

Bellarine

4.8

Bendigo East

5.0

Monbulk

5.0

Narre Warren South

5.5

Wendouree

5.8

Geelong

6.0

Northcote (v GRN)

6.0

Buninyong

6.4

Niddrie

7.7

Oakleigh

8.2

Essendon

8.7

Melton

11.2

Keysborough

11.9

Bendigo West

12.2

Bundoora

12.2

Altona

12.6

Dandenong

12.9

Footscray

14.5

Tarneit

14.6

Werribee

15.7

Clarinda

15.8

Sydenham

16.3

Williamstown

16.5

Pascoe Vale

16.8

Lara

17.1

St Albans

17.5

Yuroke

18.5

Mill Park

19.9

Kororoit

20.0

Preston

24.7

Broadmeadows

27.8

Thomastown

28.4

Liberal 30 - Nationals 8 - Independent 1

Electoral district

Margin (%)

Ripon

0.8

Morwell (NAT)

1.8

Shepparton (v NAT) IND held

2.6

South Barwon

2.9

Burwood

3.2

Eildon

3.8

Bass

4.6

Bayswater

4.6

Mount Waverley

4.6

Forest Hill

4.8

Caulfield

4.9

Ringwood

5.1

Box Hill

5.7

Sandringham

7.3

Hastings

7.6

Nepean

7.6

Ferntree Gully

7.8

Mildura (NAT v IND)

8.0

Rowville

8.4

Hawthorn

8.6

Gembrook

9.0

Croydon

9.3

Evelyn

9.6

Benambra

9.7

Brighton

9.8

Bulleen

10.6

Kew

10.6

Polwarth

10.6

South-West Coast

11.0

Narracan

11.3

Warrandyte

11.6

Mornington

12.6

Euroa (NAT)

14.5

Gippsland South (NAT)

15.7

Malvern

16.3

Ovens Valley (NAT)

16.6

Gippsland East (NAT)

17.9

Lowan (NAT)

21.3

Murray Plains (NAT)

22.4

The pendulum shows two-party preferred (2PP) AND two-candidate preferred (2CP) margins where applicable.

The equivalent 2PP swings for the 2CP seats shown in the pendulum are: the notionally Labor seats of Northcote 29.8 per cent; Brunswick 29.4 per cent; Richmond 23.1 per cent and Melbourne 20.5 per cent and the notionally Nationals seats of Mildura 20.2 per cent and Shepparton 13.3 per cent and the notionally Liberal seat of Prahran 0.03 per cent.

denotes Greens held seats denotes Independent held seat

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Andrews, D. (2014) Only Labor Will Reopen Flagstaff Station on Weekends, media release, 22 September.

Andrews, D. (2014) Our Environment, Our Future, Melbourne, Victorian Labor, 25 November.

Andrews, D. (2014) Project 10,000: Trains, Roads, Jobs, Melbourne, Victorian Labor, 2 November.

Andrews, D. (2014) The Education State, Melbourne, Victorian Labor, 1 November.

Aston, H., G. Hutchens & M. Mason (2014) 'Political blame flies as jobless rate rises', The Age, 8 August, p. 2.

Australian Sex Party – Victoria (2014) 'About Australian Sex Party – Victoria', Australian Sex Party – Victoria Facebook page.

Australian Sex Party – Victoria (2014) Drug Law Reform Policy, Australian Sex Party – Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

Australian Sex Party – Victoria (2014) Equality & Reproductive Rights Policy, Australian Sex Party – Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

Australian Sex Party – Victoria (2014) Sex Work Policy, Australian Sex Party – Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

Australian Sex Party – Victoria (2014) Voluntary Assisted Dying Policy, Australian Sex Party – Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

Barber, G. (2014) 'East West toll road – All roads lead to congestion', Victorian Greens website, 24 June.

Barry, E. (2012) 'TAFE cuts protest', Herald Sun, 19 September, p. 6.

Bowe, W. (2014) 'Poll Bludger: Redistribution of seats a game changer in election', Crikey, 4 November.

Campbell, J. & M. Ainsworth (2013) 'Shaw's asking price', Herald Sun, 16 November, p. 7.

Campbell, J. (2013) 'In the end: Ted had no choice', Herald Sun, 10 March, p. 15.

Campbell, J. (2013) 'Secret tapes bombshell', Herald Sun, 4 March, pp. 1, 4-7.

Campbell, J. (2013) 'Your taxes at work: With a paralysed government, the time has come for some hard choices', Sunday Herald Sun, 17 November, p. 23.

Chanticleer (2014) 'Lessons from Victoria', Australian Financial Review, 2 December, p. 40.

Cook, H. (2014) 'Greens think pink with ads on gay app to boost vote', The Saturday Age, 11 October, p. 21.

Cook, H. (2014) 'Geoff Shaw saga: How the most recent chapter unfolded', The Age, 4 June.

Cook, H. (2014) 'Half way to saved', The Age, 19 November, p. 1.

Cook, H. (2014) 'Prahran new face of Victorian politics with Green victory', The Age, 9 December.

Cook, H. & J. Gordon (2013) 'Shaw takes aim at Speaker', The Age, 13 November, p. 8.

Cook, H., S. Johanson & J. Gordon (2014) 'Napthine tunnel pledge disarray', The Age, 12 September, p. 2.

Cooney, E. (2014) 'Sheed's standing: Family lawyer running as independent for seat of Shepparton', Shepparton News, 31 October.

Coultan, M. (2015) 'Rich, godless find it easy voting Greens', Weekend Australian, 11 April, p. 4.

Dagge, J. (2013) 'Cabbies protest fee cut', Sunday Herald Sun, 10 June, p. 19.

Democratic Labour Party (2014) '2014 Victorian state election campaign launch', DLP Facebook page.

Democratic Labour Party (2014) Amend Victorian Abortion Laws, Starting with Section 8!, DLP policy document, Election 2014.

Democratic Labour Party (2014) A State Development Bank will Provide Much Needed Long-term Funding, DLP policy document, Election 2014.

Democratic Labour Party (2014) DLP Campaign Leaflets, DLP Facebook page, Election 2014.

Democratic Labour Party (2014) DLP Vows to Reform Poker Machine Laws, DLP policy document, Election 2014.

Democratic Labour Party (2014) Expand Palliative Care Services, DLP policy document, Election 2014.

Democratic Labour Party (2014) 'Home', DLP website.

Devic, A. (2014) 'Voters swinging behind east west', Herald Sun, 13 November, p. 6.

Donovan, S. (2013) 'All charges dropped against Geoff Shaw', The World Today, ABC News, 3 December.

Doutre, T. (2014) 'Agenda hides in plain sight on social media', Melbourne Times Weekly, 9 July, p. 9.

Dowling, J. & R. Willingham (2014) 'State Government 'strongly backed' first Melbourne Metro line', The Age, 17 May.

Dunckley, M. & L. Keen (2012) 'Embattled Baillieu forced out', Australian Financial Review, 7 March, p. 1.

Dunckley, M. (2013) 'Baillieu's exit leaves bigger issues unsolved', Australian Financial Review, 7 March.

Dundas, G. & C. Crane (2014) '800 axed: Alcoa to shut', Geelong Advertiser, 19 February, p. 1.

Editorial (2013) 'Labor's bid for power', Herald Sun, 19 November, p. 20.

Editorial (2014) 'Liberal brand on the nose', Warrnambool Standard, 1 December, p. 8.

Editorial (2014) 'Libs get political lesson', Weekly Times, 26 February, p. 24.

Editorial (2014) 'State leaders script debate', Warrnambool Standard, 21 November, p. 8.

Editorial (2014) 'Change is needed after tawdry years', The Sunday Age, 23 November, p. 28.

Electoral Matters Committee (2014) Inquiry into the Impact of Social Media on Victorian Elections and Victoria's Electoral Administration, discussion paper, Melbourne, Parliament of Victoria, August.

Ewart, H. (2013) 'What's gone wrong: critics size up Victoria's government', 7.30 Report, ABC Television, 21 February.

Farnsworth, S. (2014) 'Interview with Glenn Druery', ABC 7.30 Report, 7 November.

Ferguson, J. & R. Baxendale (2014) 'All even as leaders' fail to land a killer punch', The Australian, 20 November, p. 4.

Ferguson, J. (2013) 'Napthine minister falls on his sword over media leak', The Australian, 17 April, p. 8.

Ferguson, J. (2014) 'Speaker has spoken: Smith won't quit' The Australian, 7 January, p. 5.

Ferguson, J. (2014) 'Shaw deals Napthine's Liberals an election year embarrassment', The Australian, 5 February, p. 1.

Ferguson, J. (2014) 'Campaigner under fire for "neo-Nazi" retweet', The Australian, 17 November.

Ferguson, J. (2014) 'Huge blow for Greens, as Libs decide to preference them last', The Australian, 14 November, p. 2.

Ferguson, J. (2014) 'Labor on brink of victory: Newspoll', The Weekend Australian, 29 November, p. 1.

Ferguson, J. & R. Wallace (2014) 'Greens, PUP in upper house deal', The Australian, 18 November, p. 1.

Filmer, N. (2014) 'Phil re-enters politics to give community a voice', Moreland Leader, 17 November, p. 5.

Galaxy Research (2014) 'Labor hold comfortable lead in Victoria', Galaxy Research, 27 November.

Galaxy Research (2014) 'Who will you vote for?', Galaxy website.

Gannon, E. (2014) 'Wounded Nationals focus anger on one of their own', Herald Sun, 4 December, p. 50.

General news (2014) 'Nationals hit Eildon', North Central Review (Kilmore), 16 September, p. 7.

Gordon, J. (2012) 'Labor MP resigns after coma scare', The Age, 27 January.

Gordon, J. (2014) 'Victorian Election 2014: Result likely to come down to the wire', The Age, 28 November.

Gordon, J. (2014) 'Labor stakes all on dislike of project', The Age, 11 September, p. 4.

Gray, D. (2014) 'Peter Ryan chalks up the kilometres in his stride', The Age, 21 November, p. 6.

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Green, S. (2014) 'Abbott: Napthine's nightmare', Saturday Age, 24 May, p. 35.

Halse D. & R. Rankin (2013) 'Baillieu: Victorian uncertainty may lead to constitutional confusion', The Conversation, 7 March.

Harris, R. (2014) 'Command post: Why a desperate region jumped ship', Weekly Times, 3 December, p. 1.

Hastings, E. (2014) 'Greens picked to falter', Moreland Leader, 10 November, p. 3.

Heath, J. (2015) 'Druery sees 'minor' role', Australian Financial Review, 8 January, p. 5.

Hennessy, J. (2014) Labor's $100 million Bus Boost to Fill the Gaps in Growth Areas, media release, 20 November.

Hurley, D. & P. Rolfe (2012) 'Taken for a ride', Sunday Herald Sun, 20 May, p. 1.

Iaria, M. (2014) 'Victorian poll race expected to be close', AAP Newswire, 28 November.

Ipsos Australia (2014) 'Victoria's Coalition narrows the lead but Labor set to win the election', Ipsos website, 29 November.

Johnston, M., J. Campbell & M. Ainsworth (2014) 'Backflip Dan falls for trap', Herald Sun, 12 September, p. 6.

Keen, L. (2014) 'Sex, drugs and payroll tax', Australian Financial Review, 3 December, p. 7.

Keen, L. (2014) 'Napthine sets votes in train', Australian Financial Review, 10 November.

Keen, L. (2014) 'Sour taste for Shepparton', Australian Financial Review, 1 February, p. 6.

Keen, L. (2013) 'Traffic figures kept secret', Australian Financial Review, 14 May.

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Lannen, D. (2014) 'Qantas flies into sunset', Geelong Advertiser, 14 March, p. 3.

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Liberal Victoria (2014) 79 Extra Long Distance V/Line Train Trips Each Week, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

Liberal Victoria (2014) Building a Better Regional Victoria, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

Liberal Victoria (2014) Building a Smarter Victoria, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

Liberal Victoria (2014) Coalition Invests $75 Million to Give Young Victorians the Start they Need, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

Liberal Victoria (2014) Coalition Pledges Policy Initiatives to Benefit Victorian Families, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

Liberal Victoria (2014) Cranbourne-Pakenham Rail Corridor Upgrade, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

Liberal Victoria (2014) Melbourne Rail Link, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

Liberal Victoria (2014) Our $3.9 Billion Plan for a Rail State, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

Liberal Victoria (2014) Our Plan for 21st Century Hospitals and Schools, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

Liberal Victoria (2014) Regional Cities Infrastructure Fund, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

Liberal Victoria (2014) Widening CityLink and the Tullamarine Freeway, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

Linton, D. (2014) 'Sheed taps into frustration', Shepparton News, 1 December.

Livingston, A. (2014) 'Vic govt promises $12b, ALP $10b', AAP Newswire, 2 November.

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Medew, J. (2014) 'Paramedics taken to court for campaigning in uniform', The Age, 21 November, p. 6.

Menzies, J. & A. Tiernan (2014) 'Politicians not comfortable being mere caretakers', The Age, 11 November, p. 20.

Mitchell, N. (2014) 'Interview with Daniel Andrews', 3AW Mornings, 11 November.

Moss, D. (2014) 'From marijuana to firearms, micro-parties have a big part to play in Victoria', Crikey, 1 December.

Moss, D. (2014) 'Shifting alliances and bitter distrust as Vic preference deals go down to the wire', Crikey, 14 November.

Nationals (2014) 'Policy reference guide', Nationals policy document, Election 2014.

Patten, S. (2014) 'Alternative voice of experience', Australian Financial Review, 27 December.

Plummer, F. (2014) 'Conflicting polls of Morwell seat security', La Trobe Valley Express, 30 October, p. 5.

Quinn, L. (2014) 'Protestors march against link', Herald Sun, 31 March, p. 8.

ReachTEL (2014) '7 News – Victorian poll – 27 November 2014', ReachTEL website, 28 November.

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Schetzer, A. (2014) 'Greens launch election campaign by taking swipes at ALP', The Age, 15 November.

Sheed, S. (2014) 'About: My Policies', Suzanna Sheed policy document, Election 2014.

Shooters and Fishers Party of Victoria (2014) Policies for the 2014 Victorian State Election, Shooters and Fishers Party of Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

Shooters and Fishers Party of Victoria (2015) Shooters and Fishers Party of Victoria Facebook page.

Singer, M. (2014) 'How bratwursts and pony rides kept the tweeps happy', Sunday Age, 30 November, p. 8.

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Tomazin, F. (2014) 'Coalition under pressure from within', Sunday Age, 22 November, p. 39.

Tomazin, F. (2014) 'Rebranding Dan', The Sunday Age, 10 November, p. 16.

Tomazin, F. (2014) 'This election is built on roads: Abbott', Sunday Age, 9 November, p. 5.

Topsfield, J. & B. Preiss (2013) 'Teachers win big pay deal', The Age, 18 April.

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Victorian Greens (2014) Beat the Crush: The Greens' plan to cut overcrowding on our trams, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

Victorian Greens (2014) Better Connections for Regional Victoria: The Greens' plan for 50% more V/Line bus services, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

Victorian Greens (2014) Better Hospital Care for Families, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

Victorian Greens (2014) Clear Access to Information, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

Victorian Greens (2014) Close the Gap in Mental Health, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

Victorian Greens (2014) Coal Mining and Gas Drilling: A permanent ban on fracking, onshore gas and new coal mines, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

Victorian Greens (2014) Connecting Melbourne's Trams: The Greens' plan for tram route extensions, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

Victorian Greens (2014) Geelong and South West Coast: The Greens' plan for cycling and walking tourism, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

Victorian Greens (2014) Geelong to Bendigo Train Service: The Greens' plan to revive the Goldfields rail line, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

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Victorian Greens (2014) 'Home: Issues', Victorian Greens website.

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Victorian Greens (2014) Tackling Political Corruption, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

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Willingham, R. (2014) 'Victorian Labor Party state election campaign launch: Daniel Andrews' pitch to parents', The Age, 26 October.

Willingham, R. (2014) 'Libs' second candidate quits in disgrace', The Age, 4 August.

Willingham, R. (2014) 'Liberal candidate Aaron Lane resigns after offensive tweets', The Age, 1 August.

Worrall, A. (2014) 'Greens campaigning hard on East West Link in Melbourne inner city seats', The Age, 20 November.

Wright, T. (2014) 'Sex Party bash at bawdy house. Naturally', The Age, 13 November.

Wright, T. (2014) 'Easy, tiger. Napthine bids to claw his way back', The Age, 10 November.

 

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[footnote 1] A. Green (2013) '2013 Victorian redistribution: analysis of new electoral boundaries', Prepared for the Department of Parliamentary Services, Victorian Parliamentary Library.

[footnote 2] ibid., p. 4.

[footnote 3] P. Thornton-Smith, email, 24 March 2015. Wendouree = 50.1, Yan Yean = 50.0.

[footnote 4] Compare the 2010 pendulum with the revised 'redistribution' pendulum. Please overlook that Mackerras's 2014 redistribution pendulum also lists Wendouree and Yan Yean as notional Liberal held seats.

[footnote 5] This table is based on Antony Green's table, in the light of the VEC's results. Green (2013) op. cit., p. 4.

[footnote 6] D. Hurley & P. Rolfe (2012) 'Taken for a ride', Sunday Herald Sun, 20 May, p. 1.

[footnote 7] K. Smith (2012) 'Disclosure: improper conduct', Debates, Victoria, Legislative Assembly, 5 June, p. 2400.

[footnote 8] Charges were dropped by the DPP on 3 December 2013. S. Donovan (2013) 'All charges dropped against Geoff Shaw', The World Today, ABC News, 3 December.

[footnote 9] M. Dunckley & L. Keen (2012) 'Embattled Baillieu forced out', Australian Financial Review, 7 March, p. 1.

[footnote 10] ibid. See the next page for further discussion on Premier Baillieu's resignation.

[footnote 11] J. Ferguson (2014) 'Speaker has spoken: Smith won't quit' The Australian, 7 January, p. 5.

[footnote 12] J. Campbell & M. Ainsworth (2013) 'Shaw's asking price', Herald Sun, 16 November, p. 7; H. Cook & J. Gordon (2013) 'Shaw takes aim at Speaker', The Age, 13 November, p. 8.

[footnote 13] H. Cook (2014) 'Geoff Shaw saga: How the most recent chapter unfolded', The Age, 4 June; J. Ferguson (2014) 'Shaw deals Napthine's Liberals an election year embarrassment', The Australian, 5 February, p. 1;

J. Campbell (2013) 'Your taxes at work: With a paralysed government, the time has come for some hard choices', Sunday Herald Sun, 17 November, p. 23.

[footnote 14] J. Ferguson (2013) 'Napthine minister falls on his sword over media leak', The Australian, 17 April, p. 8.

[footnote 15] For further information on the Herald Sun tapes scandal see J. Campbell (2013) 'Secret tapes bombshell', Herald Sun, 4 March, pp. 1, 4-7.

[footnote 16] H. Ewart (2013) 'What's gone wrong: critics size up Victoria's government', 7.30 Report, ABC Television, 21 February; M. Dunckley (2013) 'Baillieu's exit leaves bigger issues unsolved', Australian Financial Review, 7 March.

[footnote 17] J. Campbell (2013) 'In the end: Ted had no choice', Herald Sun, 10 March, p. 15.

[footnote 18] J. Topsfield & B. Preiss (2013) 'Teachers win big pay deal', The Age, 18 April.

[footnote 19] Based on two-party preferred poll data. Newspoll did not publish a poll in July/August 2013.

[footnote 20] E. Barry (2012) 'TAFE cuts protest', Herald Sun, 19 September, p. 6.

[footnote 21] (2013) 'Taxi protest over cost of licence', The Australian, 26 June, p. 2; J. Dagge (2013) 'Cabbies protest fee cut', Sunday Herald Sun, 10 June, p. 19.

[footnote 22] D. Kemp (2015) 'Review of the 2014 State Election: Interim report', Liberal Party of Australia (Victorian Division), State Council, 28 March, Melbourne Convention Centre, p. 8.

[footnote 23] L. Quinn (2014) 'Protestors march against link', Herald Sun, 31 March, p. 8.

[footnote 24] D. Kemp (2015) op cit., p. 6.

[footnote 25] (2014) 'Vic: Reopen Vic mine fire inquiry: Locals', AAP Newswire, 18 November 2014.

[footnote 26] L. Keen (2014) 'Sour taste for Shepparton', Australian Financial Review, 1 February, p. 6; (2014) 'SPC Ardmona, Shepparton lifeline', Warrnambool Standard, 14 February, p. 18.

[footnote 27] N. Toscano (2014) 'State's west bearing brunt of jobs decline', The Age, 1 July, p. 8.

[footnote 28] G. Dundas & C. Crane (2014) '800 axed: Alcoa to shut', Geelong Advertiser, 19 February, p. 1; D. Lannen (2014) 'Qantas flies into sunset', Geelong Advertiser, 14 March, p. 3.

[footnote 29] S. Green (2014) 'Abbott: Napthine's nightmare', Saturday Age, 24 May, p. 35.

[footnote 30] H. Aston, G. Hutchens & M. Mason (2014) 'Political blame flies as jobless rate rises', The Age, 8 August, p. 2.

[footnote 31] See, for example: M. Iaria (2014) 'Victorian poll race expected to be close', AAP Newswire, 28 November.

[footnote 32] See, for example: F. Tomazin (2014) 'Campaign supernova: how Labor's strategy outgunned the Coalition and delivered victory to Daniel Andrews', The Sunday Age, 7 December, p. 34.

[footnote 33] F. Tomazin (2014) 'Rebranding Dan', The Sunday Age, 10 November, p. 16.

[footnote 34] J. Ferguson (2014) 'Labor on brink of victory: Newspoll', The Weekend Australian, 29 November, p. 1.

[footnote 35] See, for example: Editorial (2014) 'Liberal brand on the nose', Warrnambool Standard, 1 December, p. 8.

[footnote 36] J. Wagstaff (2014) 'Three-way is the best way', Weekly Times, 5 March, p. 10

[footnote 37] ibid.; Editorial (2014) 'Libs get political lesson', Weekly Times, 26 February, p. 24.

[footnote 38] F. Tomazin (2014) 'Coalition under pressure from within', The Sunday Age, 22 November, p. 39.

[footnote 39] ibid.; R. Willingham & J. Gordon (2014) 'State Coalition set for poll bush battle' The Age, 18 June, p. 16.

[footnote 40] General news (2014) 'Nationals hit Eildon', North Central Review (Kilmore), 16 September, p. 7.

[footnote 41] R. Wallace (2014) 'The secret weapon that outmanoeuvred the Coalition', The Australian, 1 December, p. 9.

[footnote 42] Chanticleer (2014) 'Lessons from Victoria', Australian Financial Review, 2 December, p. 40; Wallace (2014) op. cit.; Tomazin (2014) 'Campaign supernova' op. cit.

[footnote 43] ibid.

[footnote 44] J. Medew (2014) 'Paramedics taken to court for campaigning in uniform', The Age, 21 November, p. 6.

[footnote 45] L. Stickels (2014) 'Grassroots groundwork', The Greens website.

[footnote 46] H. Cook (2014) 'Prahran new face of Victorian politics with Green victory', The Age, 9 December.

[footnote 47] J. Ferguson (2014) 'Huge blow for Greens, as Libs decide to preference them last', The Australian, 14 November, p. 2.

[footnote 48] (2014) 'Vic Labor says no to formal Greens deal', AAP Newswire, 7 November; D. Moss (2014) 'Shifting alliances and bitter distrust as Vic preference deals go down to the wire', Crikey, 14 November, p. 1.

[footnote 49] J. Ferguson & R. Wallace (2014) 'Greens, PUP in upper house deal', The Australian, 18 November, p. 1.

[footnote 50] S. Farnsworth (2014) 'Interview with Glenn Druery', 7.30 Victoria, ABC Television, 7 November.

[footnote 51] J. Heath (2015) 'Druery sees 'minor' role', Australian Financial Review, 8 January, p. 5.

[footnote 52] L. Keen (2014) 'Sex, drugs and payroll tax', Australian Financial Review, 3 December, p. 7.

[footnote 53] Editorial (2014) 'State leaders script debate', Warrnambool Standard, 21 November, p. 8.

[footnote 54] D. Speers (2014) '2014 Victorian election 'people's forum'', Sky News, 19 November.

[footnote 55] ibid.

[footnote 56] ibid.

[footnote 57] J. Ferguson & R. Baxendale (2014) 'All even as leaders' fail to land a killer punch', The Australian, 20 November, p. 4.

[footnote 58] (2014) 'Vic election an infrastructure referendum', AAP Newswire, 9 November; (2014) 'Transport centre stage in Vic', The New Daily, 11 November; J. Gordon 'Labor stakes all on dislike of project', The Age, 11 September, p. 4.

[footnote 59] Victorian Parliamentary Library (2015) 2015 Briefing Book: Key Issues from the 57th Parliament, Melbourne, Victorian Parliamentary Library, pp. 138-139.

[footnote 60] ibid.

[footnote 61] ibid.

[footnote 62] ibid.

[footnote 63] G. Stayner (2013) 'Interview with Daniel Andrews', ABC 7.30 Report, 2 August.

[footnote 64] Editorial (2013) 'Labor's bid for power', Herald Sun, 19 November, p. 20.

[footnote 65] Victorian Parliamentary Library (2015) op. cit., p. 139.

[footnote 66] (2015) 'Protest earns gong', Herald Sun, 27 January, p. 2.

[footnote 67] R. Willingham (2014) 'Railway crossings big bugbear', The Age, 26 June, p. 6.

[footnote 68] N. Mitchell (2014) 'Interview with Daniel Andrews', 3AW Mornings, 11 November.

[footnote 69] E. Hastings (2014) 'Greens picked to falter', Moreland Leader, 10 November, p. 3.

[footnote 70] Victorian Parliamentary Library (2015) op. cit., p. 40.

[footnote 71] (2014) 'Vic election referendum on EW link: PM' AAP Newswire, 8 November; F. Tomazin (2014) 'This election is built on roads: Abbott', Sunday Age, 9 November, p. 5.

[footnote 72] A. Devic (2014) 'Voters swinging behind east west', Herald Sun, 13 November, p. 6.

[footnote 73] (2014) 'Most in Vic support East West Link: poll', AAP Newswire, 13 November.

[footnote 74] Victorian Parliamentary Library (2015) op. cit., p. 40.

[footnote 75] See: M. West (2014) 'Secrecy is the real road toll scandal', The Age, 12 September, p. 32; J. Menzies & A. Tiernan (2014) 'Politicians not comfortable being mere caretakers', The Age, 11 November, p. 20; M. Johnston, J. Campbell & M. Ainsworth (2014) 'Backflip Dan falls for trap', Herald Sun, 12 September, p. 6; H. Cook, S. Johanson & J. Gordon (2014) 'Napthine tunnel pledge disarray', The Age, 12 September, p. 2.

[footnote 76] H. Cook (2014) 'Half way to saved', The Age, 19 November, p. 1.

[footnote 77] S. Whyte (2014) 'They built this party on rock'n'roll', Crikey, 30 October, p. 1.

[footnote 78] N. Filmer (2014) 'Phil re-enters politics to give community a voice', Moreland Leader, 17 November, p. 5.

[footnote 79] See: Electoral Matters Committee (2014) Inquiry into the Impact of Social Media on Victorian Elections and Victoria's Electoral Administration, discussion paper, Melbourne, Parliament of Victoria, August.

[footnote 80] VEC (2014) 2014 Victorian State Election: Media Handbook, Melbourne, VEC, p. 8.

[footnote 81] VEC (2014) Victorian Voters to Get a Truly 'appy Election, media release, 14 November.

[footnote 82] See: VEC (2015) '@electionsvic', Twitter.

[footnote 83] M. Singer (2014) 'How bratwursts and pony rides kept the tweeps happy', Sunday Age, 30 November, p. 8.

[footnote 84] T. Doutre (2014) 'Agenda hides in plain sight on social media', Melbourne Times Weekly, 9 July, p. 9.

[footnote 85] H. Cook (2014) 'Greens think pink with ads on gay app to boost vote', Saturday Age, 11 October, p. 21.

[footnote 86] R. Willingham (2014) 'Liberal candidate Aaron Lane resigns after offensive tweets', The Age, 1 August; R. Willingham (2014) 'Libs' second candidate quits in disgrace', The Age, 4 August.

[footnote 87] J. Ferguson (2014) 'Campaigner under fire for "neo-Nazi" retweet', The Australian, 17 November, p. 2.

[footnote 88] R. Willingham (2014) 'Victorian state election: Napthine offers cash to kindergarten parents', The Age,

9 November. Photo: A. Wylie.

[footnote 89] T. Wright (2014) 'Easy, tiger. Napthine bids to claw his way back', The Age, 10 November.

[footnote 90] Liberal Victoria (2014) <href="#Election2014">Liberal Victoria website, Election 2014.

[footnote 91] ibid.

[footnote 92] L. Keen (2014) 'Napthine sets votes in train', Australian Financial Review, 10 November; Willingham (2014) 'Victorian state election: Napthine offers cash to kindergarten parents', op. cit.

[footnote 93] Liberal Victoria (2014) Widening CityLink and the Tullamarine Freeway, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 94] Liberal Victoria (2014) Melbourne Rail Link, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

The Melbourne Rail Link was the Coalition's alternative to the previously bi-partisan policy to build the Melbourne Metro, see: J. Dowling & R. Willingham (2014) 'State Government 'strongly backed' first Melbourne Metro line', The Age, 17 May.

[footnote 95] Liberal Victoria (2014) Cranbourne-Pakenham Rail Corridor Upgrade, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 96] Liberal Victoria (2014) Our $3.9 Billion Plan for a rail state, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 97] Liberal Victoria (2014) Regional Cities Infrastructure Fund, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 98] Liberal Victoria (2014) 79 Extra Long Distance V/Line Train Trips Each Week, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 99] Liberal Victoria (2014) Building a Better Regional Victoria, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 100] Liberal Victoria (2014) Coalition Pledges Policy Initiatives to Benefit Victorian Families, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 101] ibid.

[footnote 102] Liberal Victoria (2014) Building a Smarter Victoria, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 103] Liberal Victoria (2014) Coalition Invests $75 Million to Give Young Victorians the Start they Need, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 104] Liberal Victoria (2014) Our Plan for 21st Century Hospitals and Schools, Liberal Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 105] Victorian Labor (2014) Labor's Financial Statement 2014, prepared by Moore Stephens Accounts & Advisors for Victorian Labor, Melbourne, 28 November, p. 6.

[footnote 106] D. Andrews (2014) Daniel Andrews: Campaign Launch Speech, media release, 26 October.

[footnote 107] R. Willingham (2014) 'Victorian Labor Party state election campaign launch: Daniel Andrews' pitch to parents', The Age, 26 October.

[footnote 108] See, for example: Victorian Labor (2014) Labor's Financial Statement 2014, op. cit., p. 1.

[footnote 109] Andrews (2014) Campaign Launch Speech, op. cit. See also: D. Andrews (2014) The Education State, Victorian Labor, 1 November; D. Andrews (2014) Back to School: Skills for our Future. Support for our Kids, Melbourne, Victorian Labor, 2 November; D. Andrews (2014)Labor Will Bring Back Tech Schools, media release, 27 October; D. Andrews (2014) Labor's $100 million Plan to Re-Build and Re-Open TAFE Campuses, media release, 16 November.

[footnote 110] D. Andrews (2014) Back to Work: Labor's Plan for 100,000 Jobs, Melbourne, Victorian Labor, 2 November.

[footnote 111] ibid., pp. 3-7.

[footnote 112] D. Andrews (2014) Project 10,000: Trains, Roads, Jobs, Melbourne, Victorian Labor, 2 November.

See also: D. Andrews (2014) Only Labor Will Remove 50 Level Crossings, media release, 20 November;

D. Andrews (2014) More Victorian Trains, More Victorian Jobs Under Labor, media release, 29 October;

D. Andrews (2014) $1 Billion for Country Roads, media release, 27 August; D. Andrews (2014) $1 Billion for Suburban Roads, media release, 27 August;D. Andrews (2014) Only Labor Will Build the West Gate Distributor, media release, 7 August; D. Andrews (2014) Only Labor Will Build Melbourne Metro Rail, media release, 7 August.

[footnote 113] J. Hennessy (2014) Labor's $100 million Bus Boost to Fill the Gaps in Growth Areas, media release,

20 November.

[footnote 114] D. Andrews (2014) Geelong-Melbourne Trains Every 20 Minutes under Labor, media release, 14 August.

[footnote 115] D. Andrews (2014) Only Labor Will Extend the Rail Line to Mernda, media release, 25 September.

[footnote 116] D. Andrews (2014) Only Labor Will Reopen Flagstaff Station on Weekends, media release, 22 September.

[footnote 117] D. Andrews (2014) Labor to Build Huntingdale Bus Interchange, media release, 8 September.

[footnote 118] D. Andrews (2014) Homesafe: 24-Hour Public Transport, media release, 1 November.

[footnote 119] D. Andrews (2014) Ending the Ambulance Crisis, Melbourne, Victorian Labor, 24 November.

[footnote 120] D. Andrews (2014) Labor Announces Major Expansion of Casey Hospital, media release, 11 November.

[footnote 121] D. Andrews (2014) New Jobs, Better Lives: Victoria to Lead the World, media release, 3 November.

[footnote 122] D. Andrews (2014) Labor to Build Women's and Children's Hospital for the West, media release,

13 November.

[footnote 123] See: D. Andrews (2014) Back on Track: Labor's Plan for Geelong, Melbourne, Victorian Labor,

27 November; D. Andrews (2014) Back on Track: Labor's Plan for Ballarat, Melbourne, Victorian Labor,

25 November; D. Andrews (2014) Back on Track: Labor's Plan for the Latrobe Valley, Melbourne, Victorian Labor, 18 November; D. Andrews (2014) Back on Track: Labor's Plan for Regional Victoria, Melbourne, Victorian Labor, 17 November.

[footnote 124] D. Andrews (2014) Labor Will Save Wind Industry and Create Local Jobs, media release, 13 November.

[footnote 125] D. Andrews (2014) Our Environment, Our Future, Melbourne, Victorian Labor, 25 November.

[footnote 126] Victorian Labor (2014) Labor's Financial Statement 2014, op. cit.

[footnote 127] See: Victorian Greens (2014) 'Key Issues', Victorian Greens policy documents webpage, Election 2014.

[footnote 128] A. Schetzer (2014) 'Greens launch election campaign by taking swipes at ALP', The Age, 15 November;

A. Worrall (2014) 'Greens campaigning hard on East West Link in Melbourne inner-city seats', The Age, 18 October.

[footnote 129] ABC News (2014) 'Victorian election 2014: Greens want to "re-engage" voters as it launches campaign', ABC News website, 15 November.

[footnote 130] Victorian Greens (2014) 'Home: Issues', Victorian Greens website; Schetzer (2014) 'Greens launch election campaign by taking swipes at ALP', op. cit.; ABC News (2014) 'Victorian election 2014: Greens want to "re-engage" voters as it launches campaign', op. cit.

[footnote 131] Victorian Greens (2014) Beat the Crush: The Greens' plan to cut overcrowding on our trams, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014; G. Barber (2014) 'East West toll road – All roads lead to congestion', Victorian Greens website, 24 June; Victorian Greens (2014) Greens Vow to Stand with Community to Stop East West Tollway, media release, 30 June; L. Keen (2013) 'Traffic figures kept secret', Australian Financial Review, 14 May.

[footnote 132] Barber (2014) 'East West toll road – All roads lead to congestion', op. cit.; Victorian Greens (2014) 'Greens vow to stand with community to stop East West tollway', op. cit.

[footnote 133] Victorian Greens (2014) We Won't Stand for It: The Greens' plan to reduce overcrowding on our trains, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 134] ibid.

[footnote 135] Victorian Greens (2014) Beat the Crush, op. cit.

[footnote 136] Victorian Greens (2014) Connecting Melbourne's Trams: The Greens' plan for tram route extensions, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 137] Victorian Greens (2014) Better Connections for Regional Victoria: The Greens' plan for 50% more V/Line bus services, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 138] Victorian Greens (2014) Geelong to Bendigo Train Service: The Greens' plan to revive the Goldfields rail line, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 139] Victorian Greens (2014) Trucks and our Health: The Greens' plan to get container trucks off local streets and freight on to rail, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 140] Victorian Greens (2014) Geelong and South West Coast: The Greens' plan for cycling and walking tourism, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 141] Victorian Greens (2014) Secure Bicycle Parking at Melbourne's Train Stations: A smart solution for everyone, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 142] Victorian Greens (2014) Victorian Renewable Energy Target: Victoria can lead the way to a clean energy future, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 143] ibid.; Victorian Greens (2014) A New Victorian Economy: Cleaning up our energy system, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 144] Victorian Greens (2014) A New Victorian Economy: Cleaning up our energy system, op. cit.

[footnote 145] Victorian Greens (2014) Coal Mining and Gas Drilling: A permanent ban on fracking, onshore gas and new coal mines, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 146] Victorian Greens (2014) Better Hospital Care for Families, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014; Victorian Greens (2014) Close the Gap in Mental Health, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014; Victorian Greens (2014) Keeping People Healthy and Out of Hospital, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 147] Victorian Greens (2014) We're Standing Up for TAFE, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 148] Victorian Greens (2014) Clear Access to Information, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014; Victorian Greens (2014) Tackling Political Corruption, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014; Victorian Greens (2014) Access to Taxpayer-Funded Project Records, Victorian Greens policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 149] Shooters and Fishers Party of Victoria (2015) Shooters and Fishers Party of Victoria Facebook page.

[footnote 150] Shooters and Fishers Party of Victoria (2014) Policies for the 2014 Victorian State Election, Shooters and Fishers Party of Victoria policy document, Election 2014, p. 2.

[footnote 151] ibid., pp. 2-3.

[footnote 152] ibid., p. 3.

[footnote 153] ibid., p. 4.

[footnote 154] ibid., p. 3.

[footnote 155] ibid., p. 4.

[footnote 156] ibid., pp. 4-5.

[footnote 157] ibid., pp. 5-6.

[footnote 158] T. Wright (2014) 'Sex Party bash at bawdy house. Naturally', The Age, 13 November.

[footnote 159] ibid.; ASP – Victoria (2014) 'About Australian Sex Party – Victoria', ASP – Victoria Facebook page.

[footnote 160] S. Patten (2014) 'Alternative voice of experience', Australian Financial Review, 27 December.

[footnote 161] See: ASP – Victoria (2014) Voluntary Assisted Dying Policy, ASP – Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 162] ibid.

[footnote 163] D. Moss (2014) 'From marijuana to firearms, micro-parties have a big part to play in Victoria', Crikey, 1 December.

[footnote 164] ASP – Victoria (2014) Equality & Reproductive Rights Policy, ASP policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 165] ibid.

[footnote 166] ASP – Victoria (2014) Sex Work Policy, ASP – Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 167] ASP – Victoria (2014) Drug Law Reform Policy, ASP – Victoria policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 168] Democratic Labour Party (2014) '2014 Victorian state election campaign launch', DLP Facebook page.

[footnote 169] DLP (2014) DLP Campaign Leaflets, DLP Facebook page, Election 2014; DLP (2014) 'Home', DLP website.

[footnote 170] DLP (2014) Amend Victorian Abortion Laws, Starting with Section 8!, DLP policy document, Election 2014; See section 8 of the Abortion Law Reform Act 2008 (Vic).

[footnote 171] DLP (2014) Expand Palliative Care Services, DLP policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 172] DLP (2014) DLP Vows to Reform Poker Machine Laws, DLP policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 173] ibid.

[footnote 174] DLP (2014) A State Development Bank will Provide Much Needed Long-term Funding, DLP policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 175] J. Purcell (2015) 'Governor's Speech', Debates, Victoria, Legislative Council, 10 February, p. 89.

[footnote 176] Vote 1 Local Jobs (2014) 'Home', Vote 1 Local Jobs website.

[footnote 177] Vote 1 Local Jobs (2014) Our 8 Point Jobs Plan, Vote 1 Local Jobs policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 178] ibid.

[footnote 179] ibid.

[footnote 180] ibid.

[footnote 181] ibid.

[footnote 182] ibid.

[footnote 183] ibid.

[footnote 184] E. Cooney (2014) 'Sheed's standing: Family lawyer running as independent for seat of Shepparton', Shepparton News, 31 October.

[footnote 185] ibid.

[footnote 186] D. Linton (2014) 'Sheed taps into frustration', Shepparton News, 1 December.

[footnote 187] ibid.

[footnote 188] S. Sheed (2014) 'About: My Policies', Suzanna Sheed policy document, Election 2014.

[footnote 189] ibid.

[footnote 190] ibid.

[footnote 191] ibid.

[footnote 192] Editorial (2014) 'Change is needed after tawdry years', The Sunday Age, 23 November, p. 28.

[footnote 193] See: The Conversation (2014) 'Victorian election 2014', The Conversation.

[footnote 194] Unipollwatch (2014) 'About Unipollwatch', Unipollwatch website.

[footnote 195] G. Alcorn (2014) 'Victorian election 2014', the Guardian Australia website.

[footnote 196] Poll conducted: 24-27 November. Sample size: 1584. See Ferguson (2014) 'Labor on brink of victory: Newspoll', op. cit.

[footnote 197] Poll conducted: 25-27 November. Sample size: 1236. Ipsos Australia (2014) 'Victoria's Coalition narrows the lead but Labor set to win the Election', 29 November; J. Gordon (2014) 'Victorian Election 2014: Result likely to come down to the wire', The Age, 28 November.

[footnote 198] Poll conducted: 26-27 November. Sample size: 1163. See Roy Morgan Research (2014) 'ALP favoured to win Victorian Election but late surge to Liberals continues. A close election will be decided on minor party Preferences', Roy Morgan Research, Finding No. 5959, 27 November.

[footnote 199] Poll conducted: 25-26 November. Sample size: 1090. Galaxy Research (2014) 'Labor hold comfortable lead in Victoria', Galaxy website; Galaxy Research (2014) 'Who will you vote for?', Galaxy website.

[footnote 200] Poll conducted: 27 November. Sample size: 2155. ReachTEL (2014) '7 News – Victorian poll – 27 November 2014', ReachTEL website, 28 November.

[footnote 201] Ferguson (2014) 'Labor on brink of victory: Newspoll', op. cit.

[footnote 202] Ipsos Australia (2014) 'Victoria's Coalition narrows the lead', op. cit.

[footnote 203] Roy Morgan Research (2014) 'ALP favoured to win Victorian Election', op. cit.

[footnote 204] The SMS Morgan Poll split 'Other' into the following categories: Family First (1.5 per cent), Australian Sex Party (0.5 per cent), Country Alliance (0.5 per cent) and Independent/Others (4.0 per cent). Roy Morgan Research (2014) 'ALP favoured to win Victorian Election', op. cit.

[footnote 205] Galaxy Research (2014) 'Labor hold comfortable lead in Victoria', op. cit.; Galaxy Research (2014) 'Who will you vote for?', op. cit.

[footnote 206] ReachTEL (2014) '7 News – Victorian poll – 27 November 2014', op. cit.

[footnote 207] Ferguson (2014) 'Labor on brink of victory: Newspoll', op. cit.

[footnote 208] Ipsos Australia (2014) 'Victoria's Coalition narrows the lead', op. cit.; Gordon (2014) 'Victorian Election 2014: Result likely to come down to the wire', op. cit.

[footnote 209] Roy Morgan Research (2014) 'ALP favoured to win Victorian Elections', op. cit.

[footnote 210] Galaxy Research (2014) 'Labor hold comfortable lead in Victoria', op. cit.; Galaxy Research (2014) 'Who will you vote for?', op. cit.

[footnote 211] ReachTEL (2014) '7 News – Victorian poll – 27 November 2014', op. cit.

[footnote 212] Question asked by Newspoll: Who do you think would make the better Premier?

[footnote 213] Voters were asked: are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Denis Napthine/Mr Daniel Andrews is doing his job as Premier/Leader of Opposition?

[footnote 214] R. Macreadie (2011) 'Public opinion polls', Research Paper, No. 3, Parliamentary Library, Melbourne, Parliament of Victoria. The Library also updates (by graph) Newspoll opinion polls, which are published in The Australian outside election periods (see the Parliamentary Library Intranet Opinion Poll page).

[footnote 215] Further discussion of key policies is provided under a section on each party.

[footnote 216] Worrall (2014) 'Greens campaigning hard on East West Link in Melbourne inner city seats', op. cit.

[footnote 217] A. Livingston (2014) 'Vic govt promises $12b, ALP $10b', AAP Newswire, 2 November.

[footnote 218] Seats that notionally changed via the redivision of boundaries, which were won by a different party will be discussed further under each party's section.

[footnote 219] VEC (2006) 'State election 2006 results', VEC website.

[footnote 220] Green (2013) op. cit., pp. 4-5.

[footnote 221] P. Strangio (2012) 'The root of Labor's problems', The Age, 20 July, p. 11.

[footnote 222] M. Coultan (2015) 'Rich, godless find it easy voting Greens', Weekend Australian, 11 April, p. 4.

[footnote 223] See Victorian Parliamentary Library (2014) '2011 electorate census data for the new electoral divisions', Victorian Parliamentary Library Intranet.

[footnote 224] Frankston became an Independent held seat when Geoff Shaw resigned from the Liberal Party on 6 March 2013.

[footnote 225] W. Bowe (2014) 'Poll Bludger: Redistribution of seats a game changer in election', Crikey, 4 November.

[footnote 226] F. Plummer (2014) 'Conflicting polls of Morwell seat security', La Trobe Valley Express, 30 October, p. 5.

[footnote 227] R. Harris (2014) 'Command post: Why a desperate region jumped ship', Weekly Times, 3 December, p. 1.

[footnote 228] (2014) 'No Liberal option hurt Nats', Shepparton News, 12 December, p. 12.

[footnote 229] E. Gannon (2014) 'Wounded Nationals focus anger on one of their own', Herald Sun, 4 December, p. 50.

[footnote 230] ibid.

[footnote 231] Harris (2014) op. cit., p. 1.

[footnote 232] The Independent candidate garnering 12.9 per cent was Geoff Shaw who won the seat at the 2010 election for the Liberal Party.

[footnote 233] First preference data based on the redivision of boundaries was unavailable at the time this paper was prepared.

[footnote 234] C. Macdonald, G. Gardiner & B. Costar (2007) 'The 2006 Victorian state election', Research Paper, No. 1, Parliamentary Library, Melbourne, Parliament of Victoria, p. 30; R. Carbonnell (2015) 'Minor and micro parties win seats in Vic Upper House', PM ABC Radio, 16 December.

[footnote 235] Ted Baillieu was Victorian Premier from 2 December 2010 until his resignation on 6 March 2013.

[footnote 236] Peter Ryan was first elected to the Victorian Legislative Assembly as the Member for Gippsland South in 1992. He held the position of the Leader of the Nationals from December 1999 and served as Deputy Premier in the 57th Parliament. P. Ryan (2015) Statement by the Honourable Peter Ryan MP, Member for Gippsland South, media release, The Nationals, 2 February 2015.

[footnote 237] Informal voting refers to any ballot paper which is not completed in accordance with the parameters set by the Electoral Act 2002 (Vic) (see sections 112 and 93). These ballot papers are excluded from the count.

[footnote 238] M. Russell (2015) 'Palmer United Party candidate tells court early voting favoured big parties', The Age, 25 February.

[footnote 239] ibid.; VEC (2010) Early Voting Record Set, media release, 26 November.

[footnote 240] Russell (2015) 'Palmer United Party candidate tells court early voting favoured big parties', op. cit.

[footnote 241] (2015) 'PUP candidate loses court bid', SBS News, 24 March.

[footnote 242] This surpassed the previous low voter participation record made in the previous Parliament for the Albert Park by-election and is significantly lower than the average voter turnout rate for state by-elections (80.65 per cent). The voter turnout rate for the Melbourne by-election (68.62 per cent) was significantly lower than the voter participation rate for Melbourne district at the 2010 state election (81.35 per cent).

[footnote 243] VEC (2011) Report on the Broadmeadows District By-election Held on 19 February 2011, Melbourne, VEC, July, p. 2.

[footnote 244] While the Niddrie district had a relatively high voter turnout rate, there was a high rate of informal votes (11.48 per cent). At the 2010 election, the informality rate for Niddrie was 8.31 per cent. The average state-wide informality rate is 7.00 per cent for the five most recent state by-elections. See: VEC (2012) Report on the Niddrie District By-election Held on 24 March 2012, Melbourne, VEC, April, p. 16.

[footnote 245] VEC (2012) Report on the Melbourne District By-election Held on 21 July 2012, Melbourne, VEC, October, p. 6.

[footnote 246] VEC (2014) Report on the Lyndhurst District By-election Held on 27 April 2013, Melbourne, VEC, February, p. 18.

[footnote 247] Brumby was Victoria's 45th Premier following the resignation of Steve Bracks in July 2007, a position he held until the Labor government was defeated by the Liberal National Coalition at the 2010 state election.

[footnote 248] J. Gordon (2012) 'Labor MP resigns after coma scare', The Age, 27 January.

[footnote 249] VEC (2012) Report on the Melbourne District By-election, op. cit., p. 6 and p. 21.

[footnote 250] VEC (2014) Report on the Lyndhurst District By-election, op. cit., p. 18.

[footnote 251] See VEC (2014) Record Number of Electors, Candidates and Registered Political Parties for 2014 State Election, media release, 14 November. The VEC became aware that a candidate who nominated for the South Eastern Metropolitan region was not eligible but could not be removed from the ballet paper once nominated. See VEC (2014) State Election Candidate Qualification, media release, 14 November.

[footnote 252] See Australian Electoral Commission (2015) 'Glossary', AEC website.